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← LLY FULL ANALYSIS

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Forecast

Healthcare$1,244.40-2.81%

Framler has scored Eli Lilly and Company daily since Apr 9 — 96 published scores, of which 89 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

85bullish
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 85(90%-target range: 35–95 · agreement 66%)

Our daily score for LLY — last 96 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-04-09 score 602026-04-10 score 582026-04-13 score 442026-04-14 score 442026-04-15 score 462026-04-16 score 472026-04-17 score 492026-04-20 score 512026-04-21 score 462026-04-22 score 482026-04-23 score 362026-04-24 score 382026-04-27 score 352026-04-28 score 352026-04-29 score 362026-04-30 score 332026-05-01 score 372026-05-04 score 722026-05-05 score 382026-05-06 score 672026-05-07 score 302026-05-08 score 302026-05-11 score 602026-05-12 score 812026-05-13 score 872026-05-14 score 862026-05-15 score 892026-05-18 score 402026-05-19 score 402026-05-20 score 732026-05-21 score 862026-05-22 score 722026-05-25 score 712026-05-26 score 712026-05-27 score 852026-05-28 score 712026-05-29 score 702026-06-01 score 562026-06-02 score 482026-06-03 score 492026-06-04 score 692026-06-05 score 372026-06-08 score 492026-06-09 score 842026-06-10 score 402026-06-11 score 502026-06-12 score 422026-06-15 score 482026-06-16 score 602026-06-17 score 672026-06-18 score 682026-06-19 score 752026-06-22 score 392026-06-23 score 772026-06-24 score 392026-06-25 score 472026-06-26 score 732026-06-29 score 382026-06-30 score 382026-07-01 score 752026-07-02 score 532026-07-03 score 362026-07-06 score 442026-07-07 score 872026-07-08 score 722026-07-09 score 822026-07-10 score 732026-07-13 score 472026-07-14 score 472026-07-15 score 522026-07-16 score 612026-07-17 score 752026-07-20 score 472026-07-21 score 522026-07-22 score 362026-07-23 score 362026-07-24 score 352026-07-27 score 342026-07-28 score 462026-07-29 score 472026-07-30 score 782026-07-31 score 482026-08-03 score 512026-08-04 score 492026-08-05 score 502026-08-06 score 862026-08-07 score 882026-08-10 score 912026-08-11 score 862026-08-12 score 572026-08-13 score 882026-08-14 score 792026-08-17 score 482026-08-18 score 862026-08-19 score 852026-08-20 score 85Apr 9Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for LLY each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 41 of these 96 days sat in the green zone — the model has been leaning positive on this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on LLY? — 89 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 59 OF 89 DAYS — RIGHT 28 · WRONG 31
-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-09: we said UP (score 60), stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-10: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.76% over the next 7 days2026-04-13: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.08% over the next 7 days2026-04-14: no call (score 44) — stock went -3.88% over the next 7 days2026-04-15: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.87% over the next 7 days2026-04-16: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.53% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 49) — stock went -2.22% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 46) — stock went -4.99% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 48) — stock went -5.74% over the next 7 days
Current RegimeTRANSITION

Markets are shifting between regimes. Factor leadership is rotating; signals may be noisier than usual.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
Sector SpilloverSTRONG
Sector MomentumSTRONG
MomentumSTRONG
QualitySTRONG
Earnings DriftSTRONG
Factor InteractionGOOD
Options FlowGOOD
BEARISH FACTORS

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for LLY a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full LLY analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-04-23: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +1.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +4.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-27: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +9.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-28: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +13.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-29: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +12.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +14.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +0.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: we said UP (score 72), stock went +0.38% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said UP (score 67), stock went +2.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +1.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +3.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.35% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 81), stock went +5.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said UP (score 87), stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 86), stock went +2.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said UP (score 89), stock went +5.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +7.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said UP (score 73), stock went +6.02% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 86), stock went +10.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 72), stock went +6.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 71), stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 71), stock went -0.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said UP (score 85), stock went +1.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said UP (score 71), stock went +3.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 70), stock went +0.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: no call (score 56) — stock went +4.00% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 48) — stock went +5.77% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 49) — stock went +6.79% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said UP (score 69), stock went +7.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +0.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: we said UP (score 84), stock went -2.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -2.85% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.33% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went -5.07% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 48) — stock went -2.73% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said UP (score 60), stock went -1.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 67), stock went -0.47% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: we said UP (score 68), stock went +1.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: we said UP (score 75), stock went +9.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +11.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 77), stock went +8.83% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +7.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 47) — stock went +8.65% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 73), stock went +6.42% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.46% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-01: we said UP (score 75), stock went +1.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.12% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -2.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: we said UP (score 87), stock went -4.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-08: we said UP (score 72), stock went -7.23% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said UP (score 82), stock went -3.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went -3.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 47) — stock went -3.51% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.55% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 52) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: we said UP (score 75), stock went +2.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: no call (score 47) — stock went +1.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 52) — stock went +6.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +2.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -1.74% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -3.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -6.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: no call (score 46) — stock went -6.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: we said UP (score 78), stock went -1.49% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-31: no call (score 48) — stock went +2.66% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 51) — stock went +7.23% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 49) — stock went +8.35% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 50) — stock went +9.38% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: we said UP (score 86), stock went +3.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-07: we said UP (score 88), stock went -0.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said UP (score 91), stock went -0.22% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: we said UP (score 86), stock went -0.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.38% over the next 7 daysApr 9Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what LLY actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.

AccrualsWEAK