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Research & insights

Long-form explainers on the math and data that power Framler — written so a non-quant can follow the logic, and referenced so a quant can verify the sources.

Research12 min read · 24 Apr 2026

Phase 3 clinical trial failure prediction — the Bayesian quant framework

How a Bayesian model built on industry base rates and live trial signals quantifies Phase 3 failure probability — with worked example, citations, and Framler's integration into equity scoring.

Explainer8 min read · 24 Apr 2026

How the Framler score is calculated — a plain-English walkthrough

Thirteen academic factor families, one 0-100 composite, honest uncertainty intervals. What each component contributes and how to read the number on any ticker page.

Explainer9 min read · 24 Apr 2026

The short squeeze predictor nobody is using — Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005 applied

Why "high short interest" alone misses the setup, what the 2005 paper actually says, and how the three-factor confluence (short ratio + momentum + options flow) avoids the usual false positives.

Explainer10 min read · 24 Apr 2026

The Sloan accruals signal — why cash-flow quality leads reported earnings

Sloan 1996 is the most important accounting anomaly in the quant canon. Here's what it actually measures, why it still works 30 years later, and how Framler integrates it into both factor scoring and pattern detection.

Research11 min read · 24 Apr 2026

Why multi-factor scoring beats consensus analyst ratings

The research on analyst rating performance is damning. Multi-factor systematic scoring outperforms on out-of-sample metrics every time the comparison is made honestly. Why — and what that means for using either.

Methodology10 min read · 24 Apr 2026

Regime-conditional factor investing — why one factor recipe never works in every market

Momentum works in risk-on, quality wins in risk-off, and value needs both to behave. Which factors to weight when isn't optional — it's the difference between consistent alpha and getting whipsawed.

Explainer11 min read · 27 Apr 2026

Post-earnings-announcement drift — a step-by-step walkthrough on a real-world setup

Bernard-Thomas 1989 documented one of the most durable anomalies in finance: stocks that beat earnings keep drifting upward for 60 trading days. Here's how Framler reads PEAD, factor by factor, on an illustrative setup — including the one trade that got it wrong and why.

MORE ON THE METHOD

For the full engine overview see the Methodology page, the Pattern Library, or our current Track Record.

Research & insights — Framler blog | Framler