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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) company logo
Healthcare · NYSE
Calibration 2/4:●1d●7d○30d○90d

LLY STOCK · Eli Lilly and Company BullishMulti-factor aligned

$1,185.71-0.52%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
91
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [32–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.6%mean ret +1.87%n=2484Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why LLY scores 91

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Recent earnings surprise still drifting (Bernard-Thomas)
  • +Sector in favour — rotation tailwind

Full report — sign in to unlock

🧬 Phase 3 / FDA catalyst

LLY has an active Phase 3 clinical trial — NCT05026866. Framler models the failure probability for LLY from ClinicalTrials.gov data — the figure is shown after you sign in.

🧬 Biotech intelligence
Bayesian Phase-3 trial failure probability vs the disease base rate, an estimated FDA decision window, patent-cliff timing, and comparable historical trials — the biotech layer for LLY.
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🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on LLY? — 80 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 55 OF 80 DAYS — RIGHT 27 · WRONG 28
-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-09: we said UP (score 60), stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-10: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.76% over the next 7 days2026-04-13: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.08% over the next 7 days2026-04-14: no call (score 44) — stock went -3.88% over the next 7 days2026-04-15: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.87% over the next 7 days2026-04-16: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.53% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 49) — stock went -2.22% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 46) — stock went -4.99% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-22: no call (score 48) — stock went -5.74% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +1.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +4.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-27: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +9.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-28: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +13.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-29: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +12.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +14.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +0.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: we said UP (score 72), stock went +0.38% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said UP (score 67), stock went +2.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +1.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +3.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.35% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 81), stock went +5.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said UP (score 87), stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 86), stock went +2.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said UP (score 89), stock went +5.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +7.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said UP (score 73), stock went +6.02% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 86), stock went +10.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 72), stock went +6.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 71), stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 71), stock went -0.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said UP (score 85), stock went +1.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said UP (score 71), stock went +3.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 70), stock went +0.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: no call (score 56) — stock went +4.00% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 48) — stock went +5.77% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 49) — stock went +6.79% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said UP (score 69), stock went +7.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +0.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: we said UP (score 84), stock went -2.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -2.85% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.33% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went -5.07% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 48) — stock went -2.73% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said UP (score 60), stock went -1.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 67), stock went -0.47% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: we said UP (score 68), stock went +1.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: we said UP (score 75), stock went +9.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +11.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 77), stock went +8.83% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +7.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 47) — stock went +8.65% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 73), stock went +6.42% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.46% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-01: we said UP (score 75), stock went +1.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.12% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -2.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: we said UP (score 87), stock went -4.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-08: we said UP (score 72), stock went -7.23% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said UP (score 82), stock went -3.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went -3.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 47) — stock went -3.51% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.55% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 52) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: we said UP (score 75), stock went +2.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: no call (score 47) — stock went +1.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 52) — stock went +6.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +2.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -1.74% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -3.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -6.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: no call (score 46) — stock went -6.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: we said UP (score 78), stock went -1.49% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 9Jul 30
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what LLY actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.