Almost nobody in finance does this: we wrote down a testable prediction and a strict pass/fail rule in advance, set a public deadline, and locked our daily scores in Bitcoin so we can't quietly change them. A bet we could genuinely lose — watched in the open.
The claim — pre-registered 2026-07-06
Framler's top-scored stocks out-return its bottom-scored stocks.
Rank all 1,000+ stocks by our score, then compare the realised return of the top 20% vs the bottom 20%. If the score is real, the top beats the bottom — repeatedly, beyond chance.
Does the top beat the bottom?
Daily top-minus-bottom return · 7-day horizon · 58 published days
NOT YET PROVEN
Average gap
+0.54%
Days top won
33/58
Independent windows
12
Each bar is one published day: above the line our top-scored stocks beat the bottom-scored, below they lost. It's mixed — 33 up, 25 down — tilted slightly positive (dashed line = +0.54% average). A real edge would sit clearly above zero; this doesn't yet.
Is that tilt real, or luck? · 95% confidence interval12 indep. windows
0%
The interval still crosses zero (lower bound -1.07%). Until it clears zero, the tilt could be luck, not skill — so the verdict stays NOT YET PROVEN. We're not claiming an edge; we're testing one in public, and we'll say plainly if it fails. Recomputed from live data every 30 min; significance uses non-overlapping windows only.
30-day horizon · the definitive test
TOO EARLY
+3.77%
Looks big — but it rests on just 2 independent windows. That's noise until more mature; don't read into it. Verdict due 2027-07-01.
First verdict
2027-01-01 · in ~177 days
~33 independent windows expected by then
The rules can't move — that's what makes it a bet
Fixed 2026-07-06 · published · Bitcoin-anchored
Fixed in advance
The claim, the 95% pass mark and the deadline were set on 2026-07-06. No changing the rule after seeing the result.
Scientific bar
A pass needs the gap to be 95% statistically certain — not "looks positive". No cherry-picked windows.
Recomputable
The headline gap is the plain average over every published day. Recompute it yourself, get our exact number. Significance is tested only on non-overlapping windows, because overlap fakes certainty.
₿ anchored
The daily scores feeding the test are hashed into Bitcoin in our signal ledger — we can't rewrite a past score to help the bet.
Public either way
At each deadline we stamp the verdict — PROVEN or NOT PROVEN — here and in the ledger. A failure gets said out loud, not buried.
What a pass proves — and what it doesn't. It proves our score ranks stocks better than chance. Not profit, not investment advice, not beating the market after costs. Proof of honesty and ranking skill — nothing more. Follow the maturing record on track record.