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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) company logo
Energy · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

XOM STOCK · Exxon Mobil Corporation BullishSingle-factor signal

$166.15+0.84%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
62
⚠Sector calibration · weak
Engine accuracy in Energy has been negative on recent rolling windows — the composite has read against the realised direction. Do not act on the composite alone. Rely on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow until the next calibration window restores edge.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [12–95]Top driver: Options Flow
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 59.1%mean ret +2.34%n=2814Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why XOM scores 62

  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • +Constructive 10-K MD&A tone (Loughran-McDonald)
  • +Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on XOM? — 89 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 30 OF 89 DAYS — RIGHT 16 · WRONG 14
-10%-5%0%+5%2026-04-09: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.71% over the next 7 days2026-04-10: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -6.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-13: no call (score 43) — stock went -3.17% over the next 7 days2026-04-14: no call (score 43) — stock went -2.72% over the next 7 days2026-04-15: no call (score 50) — stock went -2.06% over the next 7 days2026-04-16: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.38% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.02% over the next 7 days2026-04-20: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.49% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 54) — stock went +4.25% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-23: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.23% over the next 7 days2026-04-24: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.47% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.21% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 52) — stock went +4.51% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.24% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.23% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 59) — stock went -6.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: no call (score 54) — stock went -2.01% over the next 7 days2026-05-05: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 46) — stock went +2.75% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 47) — stock went +7.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: we said UP (score 71), stock went +8.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-12: we said UP (score 71), stock went +8.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said UP (score 84), stock went +3.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 84), stock went +2.45% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said UP (score 85), stock went +1.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said UP (score 73), stock went -5.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said UP (score 71), stock went -6.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said UP (score 71), stock went -9.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-21: we said UP (score 82), stock went -5.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-22: no call (score 45) — stock went -6.46% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 48) — stock went -3.58% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.46% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: we said UP (score 71), stock went +1.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: no call (score 46) — stock went +2.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 50) — stock went +2.01% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 51) — stock went +4.47% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 67), stock went +0.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: we said UP (score 68), stock went -3.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 67), stock went -3.31% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 68), stock went -6.00% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 68), stock went -5.49% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-11: no call (score 44) — stock went -8.50% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: we said UP (score 69), stock went -5.55% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: no call (score 44) — stock went -5.81% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: no call (score 56) — stock went -0.84% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 46) — stock went -3.50% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: we said UP (score 68), stock went -2.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-19: no call (score 48) — stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 66), stock went -1.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.26% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: we said UP (score 66), stock went -2.47% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said UP (score 66), stock went +0.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: we said UP (score 65), stock went -0.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: we said UP (score 64), stock went -0.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: we said UP (score 62), stock went +4.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said UP (score 61), stock went +0.87% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 43) — stock went +1.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.41% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 49) — stock went +6.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 49) — stock went +2.26% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 57) — stock went +3.42% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 59) — stock went +7.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 43) — stock went +6.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 50) — stock went +4.98% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 59) — stock went +6.45% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said UP (score 60), stock went +8.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: no call (score 57) — stock went +7.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.03% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 58) — stock went +3.15% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 57) — stock went +3.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: we said UP (score 60), stock went +3.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 57) — stock went -1.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.52% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 59) — stock went -1.22% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.50% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 57) — stock went +2.80% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: we said UP (score 71), stock went +3.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-05: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.76% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 52) — stock went +4.60% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 59) — stock went +3.40% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 60), stock went +5.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: no call (score 58) — stock went +3.61% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: we said UP (score 61), stock went +3.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHTApr 9Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what XOM actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.