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Williams-Sonoma (WSM) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

WSM STOCK · Williams-Sonoma NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$232.30-0.47%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
41
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Consumer Cyclical has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 52.0%mean ret +0.49%n=2501Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookBelow-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why WSM scores 41

  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)
  • +High-quality fundamentals (Novy-Marx gross profitability)
  • -Options skew negative — hedging flow elevated

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on WSM? — 103 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 32 OF 103 DAYS — RIGHT 15 · WRONG 17
-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-05-05: we said UP (score 63), stock went -2.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said UP (score 63), stock went -4.55% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-07: we said UP (score 64), stock went -6.88% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 64), stock went -8.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.46% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.66% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 55) — stock went +11.55% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-15: no call (score 52) — stock went +10.86% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 73), stock went +17.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: no call (score 43) — stock went +17.27% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 52) — stock went +18.29% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: we said UP (score 60), stock went +14.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 61), stock went +6.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 60), stock went +5.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 61), stock went +5.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: no call (score 55) — stock went +4.40% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +2.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -0.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.46% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +7.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +8.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 44) — stock went +12.19% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 47) — stock went +3.74% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +9.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went +3.35% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 48) — stock went +1.13% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: no call (score 42) — stock went +1.28% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 59) — stock went +3.73% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 53) — stock went +8.55% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 50) — stock went +5.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 61), stock went +5.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went +0.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.45% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 64), stock went -6.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.42% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 51) — stock went -7.36% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 46) — stock went -6.34% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 45) — stock went -3.67% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: no call (score 50) — stock went -2.54% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -2.00% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.41% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 52) — stock went +4.61% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 49) — stock went +3.93% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.72% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 55) — stock went +2.07% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 42) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 43) — stock went -1.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -0.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +2.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-21: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.73% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 41) — stock went +4.94% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +4.60% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +5.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +6.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-29: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.04% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 50) — stock went +5.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 55) — stock went +7.69% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 55) — stock went +9.69% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 43) — stock went +4.50% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.50% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.34% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.15% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 41) — stock went -4.51% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.76% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 51) — stock went -3.30% over the next 7 days2026-08-13: no call (score 49) — stock went -3.85% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-17: no call (score 54) — stock went -1.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-18: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.36% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: no call (score 42) — stock went -1.64% over the next 7 days2026-08-20: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -1.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-21: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.26% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -3.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-25: no call (score 52) — stock went -6.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: no call (score 54) — stock went -5.55% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.18% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.61% over the next 7 days2026-08-31: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -3.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-01: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.18% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: no call (score 51) — stock went +2.43% over the next 7 days2026-09-03: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-09-04: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.56% over the next 7 days2026-09-07: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.88% over the next 7 days2026-09-08: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.62% over the next 7 days2026-09-09: no call (score 41) — stock went -4.23% over the next 7 days2026-09-10: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -3.78% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-11: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +0.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-14: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.41% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-15: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went -0.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-16: no call (score 59) — stock went +2.87% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: no call (score 51) — stock went +4.79% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.93% over the next 7 days2026-09-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +3.05% over the next 7 days2026-09-22: no call (score 43) — stock went +1.23% over the next 7 days2026-09-23: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.04% over the next 7 days2026-09-24: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.44% over the next 7 daysMay 5Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what WSM actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.