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← VRTX FULL ANALYSIS

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Forecast

Healthcare$540.26-2.14%

Framler has scored Vertex Pharmaceuticals daily since Apr 16 — 91 published scores, of which 85 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

74bullish
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 74(90%-target range: 24–95 · agreement 64%)

Our daily score for VRTX — last 91 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-04-16 score 472026-04-17 score 452026-04-20 score 522026-04-21 score 492026-04-22 score 522026-04-23 score 772026-04-24 score 772026-04-27 score 272026-04-28 score 272026-04-29 score 282026-04-30 score 282026-05-01 score 282026-05-04 score 272026-05-05 score 362026-05-06 score 352026-05-07 score 402026-05-08 score 362026-05-11 score 772026-05-12 score 772026-05-13 score 332026-05-14 score 402026-05-15 score 372026-05-18 score 402026-05-19 score 382026-05-20 score 492026-05-21 score 532026-05-22 score 522026-05-25 score 532026-05-26 score 532026-05-27 score 512026-05-28 score 512026-05-29 score 412026-06-01 score 362026-06-02 score 382026-06-03 score 492026-06-04 score 342026-06-05 score 342026-06-08 score 802026-06-09 score 522026-06-10 score 352026-06-11 score 402026-06-12 score 452026-06-15 score 352026-06-16 score 332026-06-17 score 652026-06-18 score 662026-06-19 score 652026-06-22 score 352026-06-23 score 352026-06-24 score 372026-06-25 score 362026-06-26 score 442026-06-29 score 372026-06-30 score 362026-07-01 score 402026-07-02 score 322026-07-03 score 352026-07-06 score 452026-07-07 score 462026-07-08 score 492026-07-09 score 512026-07-10 score 472026-07-13 score 522026-07-14 score 482026-07-15 score 802026-07-16 score 782026-07-17 score 812026-07-20 score 512026-07-21 score 522026-07-22 score 392026-07-23 score 372026-07-24 score 332026-07-27 score 382026-07-28 score 352026-07-29 score 352026-07-30 score 512026-07-31 score 342026-08-03 score 792026-08-04 score 482026-08-05 score 692026-08-06 score 712026-08-07 score 722026-08-10 score 732026-08-11 score 702026-08-12 score 452026-08-13 score 452026-08-14 score 492026-08-17 score 452026-08-18 score 462026-08-19 score 732026-08-20 score 74Apr 16Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for VRTX each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 39 of these 91 days sat in the red zone — the model has been leaning against this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on VRTX? — 85 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 56 OF 85 DAYS — RIGHT 24 · WRONG 32
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-04-16: no call (score 47) — stock went -1.49% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.23% over the next 7 days2026-04-20: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.44% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 49) — stock went -2.06% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.06% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said UP (score 77), stock went -2.35% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said UP (score 77), stock went -2.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-27: we said DOWN (score 27), stock went -0.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-28: we said DOWN (score 27), stock went -0.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT
Current RegimeTRANSITION

Markets are shifting between regimes. Factor leadership is rotating; signals may be noisier than usual.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
Sector SpilloverSTRONG
Sector MomentumSTRONG
MomentumSTRONG
Factor InteractionGOOD
QualityGOOD
BEARISH FACTORS
Insider FlowWEAK

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for VRTX a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full VRTX analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-04-29: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went -0.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went +0.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went +0.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: we said DOWN (score 27), stock went +2.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-05: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +5.64% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +6.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-07: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +2.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 77), stock went -0.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 77), stock went -0.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -4.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -4.31% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -3.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -0.23% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: no call (score 49) — stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.07% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 52) — stock went +3.23% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.89% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.03% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 41) — stock went -0.25% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -1.02% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +1.68% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: no call (score 49) — stock went +2.50% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +3.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +0.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 80), stock went +0.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: no call (score 52) — stock went +2.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +2.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-11: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +3.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: no call (score 45) — stock went +4.89% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +4.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-16: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +3.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 65), stock went +4.86% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: we said UP (score 66), stock went +4.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: we said UP (score 65), stock went +8.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +10.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +6.41% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +6.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +11.12% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: no call (score 44) — stock went +10.29% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +7.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +4.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-01: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.34% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -0.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -8.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 45) — stock went -9.05% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 46) — stock went -10.34% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 49) — stock went -9.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.49% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 47) — stock went -2.19% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.01% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.36% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: we said UP (score 80), stock went -0.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: we said UP (score 78), stock went -0.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: we said UP (score 81), stock went -1.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-20: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.37% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 52) — stock went +2.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +0.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +1.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +0.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -1.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -0.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -1.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.14% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +2.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-03: we said UP (score 79), stock went +9.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: no call (score 48) — stock went +12.52% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 69), stock went +9.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: we said UP (score 71), stock went +6.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-07: we said UP (score 72), stock went +4.49% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went +3.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 70), stock went +0.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: no call (score 45) — stock went +4.23% over the next 7 daysApr 16Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what VRTX actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.