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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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United Therapeutics (UTHR) company logo
Healthcare · NASDAQ
Calibration 2/4:●1d●7d○30d○90d

UTHR STOCK · United Therapeutics NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$538.84+1.11%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
44
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Options Flow
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 55.6%mean ret +2.01%n=12362Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookBelow-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why UTHR scores 44

  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🧬 Phase 3 / FDA catalyst

UTHR has an active Phase 3 clinical trial — NCT05943535. Framler models the failure probability for UTHR from ClinicalTrials.gov data — the figure is shown after you sign in.

🧬 Biotech intelligence
Bayesian Phase-3 trial failure probability vs the disease base rate, an estimated FDA decision window, patent-cliff timing, and comparable historical trials — the biotech layer for UTHR.
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🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on UTHR? — 63 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 8 OF 63 DAYS — RIGHT 0 · WRONG 8

Why so much grey? The score only takes a side when enough of the 13 factors agree on a direction. On UTHR they have mostly pointed different ways and cancelled each other out, so the honest output was “no call” — the model doesn't manufacture an opinion to have one. Nothing is missing here: across all 1,001 stocks about a third of graded days carry a call; this stock just hasn't been one of them lately.

-5%0%2026-05-05: no call (score 58) — stock went +1.67% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 58) — stock went +1.28% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 63), stock went -3.51% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 63), stock went -1.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.77% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-14: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-15: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.28% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-18: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 49) — stock went +2.02% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.70% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.33% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.60% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.19% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 46) — stock went -4.99% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 56) — stock went -5.01% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said UP (score 63), stock went -4.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.17% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 57) — stock went +1.56% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.75% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.74% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 56) — stock went -0.32% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: we said UP (score 74), stock went -0.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.66% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.38% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 49) — stock went -1.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 59) — stock went -1.40% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: no call (score 58) — stock went -0.95% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.47% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 56) — stock went +1.13% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 44) — stock went +1.55% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: no call (score 44) — stock went +0.66% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: no call (score 54) — stock went +0.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: no call (score 57) — stock went +1.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.71% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.85% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 58) — stock went +3.45% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 56) — stock went +2.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 52) — stock went +0.97% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: no call (score 55) — stock went -1.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.66% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.37% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 58) — stock went -7.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 56) — stock went -4.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.04% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 46) — stock went -3.24% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.05% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.42% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.44% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 48) — stock went -1.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.24% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.30% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 53) — stock went -1.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 54) — stock went -0.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.57% over the next 7 daysMay 5Jul 30
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what UTHR actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.