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StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) company logo
Technology · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

STNE STOCK · StoneCo Ltd. BullishMulti-factor aligned

$9.16-3.27%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
77
AgreementSTRONG ALIGNMENT

Most factor streams point the same way.

90% interval: [27–95]Top driver: Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.6%mean ret +2.51%n=3927Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why STNE scores 77

  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Heavy short interest with downward momentum

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on STNE? — 70 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 18 OF 70 DAYS — RIGHT 7 · WRONG 11
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-05-07: no call (score 55) — stock went -14.69% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: we said UP (score 69), stock went -12.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.25% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 56) — stock went +9.46% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 56) — stock went +14.55% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-15: no call (score 45) — stock went +13.40% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 52) — stock went +17.48% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 52) — stock went +10.58% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: we said UP (score 61), stock went +10.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 78), stock went +2.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 60), stock went +3.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 79), stock went +6.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: no call (score 56) — stock went +2.18% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 55) — stock went -5.76% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 55) — stock went -5.20% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 56) — stock went -8.21% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: we said UP (score 60), stock went -7.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-02: we said UP (score 80), stock went -8.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: we said UP (score 80), stock went -5.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: no call (score 51) — stock went +5.73% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 49) — stock went +4.65% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 41) — stock went +3.97% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.03% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 43) — stock went -4.53% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 64), stock went -4.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-16: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.46% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 57) — stock went -1.55% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.19% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.78% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 51) — stock went +2.83% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.93% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: no call (score 48) — stock went +2.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.23% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.48% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.36% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: we said UP (score 63), stock went -1.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-01: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 56) — stock went -0.27% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said UP (score 61), stock went +0.36% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.18% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.14% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 51) — stock went +6.46% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 49) — stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 59) — stock went -0.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 57) — stock went +0.99% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 58) — stock went +0.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.66% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.93% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.33% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.36% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said UP (score 79), stock went -2.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.62% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 52) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 52) — stock went +5.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: we said UP (score 62), stock went +0.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.09% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 77), stock went -7.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-03: we said UP (score 77), stock went -8.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: we said UP (score 62), stock went -12.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: we said UP (score 61), stock went -10.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 55) — stock went -8.42% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -13.81% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 55) — stock went -12.55% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 55) — stock went -12.05% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 54) — stock went -4.92% over the next 7 daysMay 7Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what STNE actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.