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Steel Dynamics (STLD) company logo
Basic Materials · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

STLD STOCK · Steel Dynamics NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$237.08-1.50%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
61
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [6–95]Top driver: Sector Spillover
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.5%mean ret +2.10%n=3206Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why STLD scores 61

  • -Industry-link drag from peer weakness
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • +Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on STLD? — 94 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 42 OF 94 DAYS — RIGHT 12 · WRONG 30
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-27: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.34% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.52% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 49) — stock went +6.56% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.81% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 48) — stock went +2.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: no call (score 57) — stock went +2.92% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-05: we said UP (score 60), stock went -1.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-07: we said UP (score 69), stock went -2.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 72), stock went -1.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.45% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.34% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 51) — stock went -3.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.21% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 54) — stock went +2.28% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 50) — stock went +9.22% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 44) — stock went +9.59% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 50) — stock went +15.60% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 47) — stock went +14.21% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 53) — stock went +12.21% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 54) — stock went +8.98% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +13.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +9.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +7.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +2.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +2.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-02: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.14% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -1.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +2.13% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: no call (score 41) — stock went +1.37% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 43) — stock went +2.65% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.12% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 42) — stock went -6.87% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 43) — stock went -10.22% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 42) — stock went -11.24% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -10.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: no call (score 50) — stock went -11.98% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -7.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: no call (score 42) — stock went -1.77% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.28% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: we said UP (score 63), stock went -8.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: no call (score 50) — stock went -9.00% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: no call (score 42) — stock went -8.71% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 48) — stock went -9.53% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 41) — stock went -7.50% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -1.96% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said UP (score 65), stock went -0.31% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-02: we said UP (score 66), stock went +0.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 58) — stock went +6.24% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 55) — stock went +3.93% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 41) — stock went +2.77% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 41) — stock went +2.72% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +6.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 58) — stock went -0.26% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +2.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.13% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +5.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-20: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +6.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-21: no call (score 49) — stock went +12.69% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 57) — stock went +8.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +5.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 25), stock went +4.44% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 25), stock went +4.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +5.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-29: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +2.39% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-30: no call (score 55) — stock went +3.62% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 62), stock went +6.90% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +2.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: we said UP (score 62), stock went -0.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.04% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.18% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 60), stock went -1.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: no call (score 57) — stock went -7.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: we said UP (score 60), stock went -12.39% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-13: no call (score 47) — stock went -16.79% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: no call (score 52) — stock went -12.23% over the next 7 days2026-08-17: we said UP (score 65), stock went -10.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: no call (score 43) — stock went -10.49% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: we said UP (score 63), stock went -5.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-20: no call (score 54) — stock went +2.09% over the next 7 days2026-08-21: we said UP (score 64), stock went +7.16% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-24: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +1.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-25: we said UP (score 69), stock went +2.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-26: no call (score 57) — stock went +7.17% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 57) — stock went +4.29% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: we said UP (score 69), stock went +2.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-31: no call (score 55) — stock went +2.41% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: we said UP (score 70), stock went +3.31% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-02: we said UP (score 68), stock went +2.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-03: we said UP (score 71), stock went -4.26% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 27Sep 3
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what STLD actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.