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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

SMTC STOCK · Semtech Corporation BearishMulti-factor aligned

$124.88-0.38%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
46
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–93]Top driver: Accruals
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why SMTC scores 46

  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • -Sector underperforming broader market
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on SMTC? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 40 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 22 · WRONG 18
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+30%2026-05-05: we said UP (score 64), stock went +16.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-06: we said UP (score 64), stock went +23.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: no call (score 58) — stock went +18.43% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: we said UP (score 64), stock went +13.28% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-11: we said UP (score 62), stock went -0.17% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 45) — stock went +4.86% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 57) — stock went +11.07% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 64), stock went +19.49% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: we said UP (score 64), stock went +24.22% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: no call (score 43) — stock went +16.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: we said UP (score 63), stock went +17.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 64), stock went +4.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 63), stock went -4.59% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-26: we said UP (score 64), stock went +6.28% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: we said UP (score 65), stock went -0.58% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: we said UP (score 64), stock went +7.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 73), stock went -9.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: we said UP (score 63), stock went +4.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 53) — stock went -7.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said UP (score 64), stock went +0.04% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said UP (score 66), stock went -1.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 65), stock went +15.42% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: no call (score 43) — stock went +1.76% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 67), stock went -4.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-11: we said UP (score 66), stock went +2.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 45) — stock went +6.82% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 67), stock went +4.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 67), stock went -6.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 65), stock went -1.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: no call (score 46) — stock went +8.04% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.36% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 59) — stock went -1.32% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went -7.37% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 69), stock went -9.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said UP (score 79), stock went -14.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: no call (score 50) — stock went -14.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said UP (score 67), stock went -7.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: no call (score 43) — stock went -19.05% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 57) — stock went -20.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said UP (score 63), stock went -6.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: no call (score 43) — stock went +0.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.82% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 51) — stock went +10.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 79), stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 65), stock went -9.12% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 56) — stock went -7.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 48) — stock went +4.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 55) — stock went -3.13% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 42) — stock went -1.36% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 51) — stock went -11.58% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said UP (score 61), stock went -24.88% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said UP (score 66), stock went -16.30% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -15.04% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -5.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: no call (score 48) — stock went +6.29% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 45) — stock went +8.94% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 47) — stock went +30.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 63), stock went +21.65% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 63), stock went +11.42% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: we said UP (score 70), stock went +10.16% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-05: we said UP (score 71), stock went +8.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: no call (score 50) — stock went +10.17% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: we said UP (score 67), stock went +4.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-10: we said UP (score 61), stock went +10.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: no call (score 48) — stock went +3.02% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 56) — stock went -4.44% over the next 7 daysMay 5Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what SMTC actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.