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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) company logo
Technology · NASDAQ
Calibration 2/4:●1d●7d○30d○90d

SMCI STOCK · Super Micro Computer, Inc. NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$31.13+5.96%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
48
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Options Flow
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why SMCI scores 48

  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Heavy short interest with downward momentum
  • +Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on SMCI? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 29 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 9 · WRONG 20
-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+15%+20%+25%+30%+35%+40%2026-04-22: no call (score 49) — stock went -7.42% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said UP (score 95), stock went -6.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.27% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: we said UP (score 83), stock went -3.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-28: we said UP (score 84), stock went -0.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-29: no call (score 49) — stock went +27.19% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 52) — stock went +27.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 54) — stock went +29.09% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: we said UP (score 84), stock went +23.74% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: no call (score 57) — stock went +17.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 57) — stock went +14.98% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 74), stock went -4.70% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 75), stock went -7.67% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 75), stock went -13.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 75), stock went -8.83% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: no call (score 49) — stock went +3.75% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 49) — stock went +4.56% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 48) — stock went +7.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 75), stock went +19.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: no call (score 54) — stock went +20.26% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 57) — stock went +24.97% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 59) — stock went +23.43% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: we said UP (score 75), stock went +37.75% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 60), stock went +31.76% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: no call (score 59) — stock went +41.01% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 59) — stock went +27.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 58) — stock went +22.81% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.82% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 59) — stock went -4.56% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 59) — stock went -13.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 60), stock went -41.66% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 60), stock went -32.58% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 72), stock went -35.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: no call (score 45) — stock went -25.91% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 44) — stock went -33.58% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 74), stock went -31.64% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-11: we said UP (score 81), stock went +4.75% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went +10.92% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 60), stock went +16.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: no call (score 57) — stock went +8.01% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: we said UP (score 60), stock went +11.05% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 50) — stock went +14.04% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.10% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 76), stock went -8.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 74), stock went -17.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 83), stock went -17.02% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said UP (score 69), stock went -16.12% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: no call (score 57) — stock went -14.17% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 48) — stock went -11.23% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 58) — stock went -6.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.96% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said UP (score 72), stock went +2.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.00% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 54) — stock went +1.62% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.45% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 50) — stock went -12.39% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went -14.38% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said UP (score 74), stock went -15.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: no call (score 53) — stock went -7.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 53) — stock went +10.52% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 51) — stock went +16.03% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 48) — stock went +21.96% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 48) — stock went +23.28% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 50) — stock went +19.39% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said UP (score 75), stock went +0.78% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said UP (score 89), stock went -9.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said UP (score 76), stock went -8.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 76), stock went -4.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: no call (score 58) — stock went +6.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 56) — stock went +6.57% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 53) — stock went +3.27% over the next 7 daysApr 22Jul 30
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what SMCI actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.