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StandardAero (SARO) company logo
Industrials · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

SARO STOCK · StandardAero BearishMulti-factor aligned

$24.04+1.65%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
47
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Industrials has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Options Flow
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 55.4%mean ret +1.75%n=18104Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why SARO scores 47

  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Sector underperforming broader market
  • -Momentum fading — price weak vs peers

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on SARO? — 47 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 19 OF 47 DAYS — RIGHT 7 · WRONG 12
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-07-01: we said UP (score 74), stock went -5.88% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-02: we said UP (score 75), stock went -6.47% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: we said UP (score 73), stock went -7.24% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-06: we said UP (score 73), stock went -8.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-07: we said UP (score 77), stock went -11.51% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-08: we said UP (score 63), stock went -10.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: no call (score 48) — stock went -5.44% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 45) — stock went -4.74% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-07-13: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.58% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 49) — stock went +0.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said UP (score 80), stock went +2.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: no call (score 48) — stock went +7.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 48) — stock went +10.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 81), stock went +13.17% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: we said UP (score 78), stock went +5.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said UP (score 80), stock went +5.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said UP (score 76), stock went +3.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said UP (score 76), stock went +4.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: no call (score 42) — stock went +3.89% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 41) — stock went +2.82% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 44) — stock went +4.42% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 74), stock went +0.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 74), stock went -3.34% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: we said UP (score 76), stock went -5.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: no call (score 41) — stock went -10.72% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 41) — stock went -12.54% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -7.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.17% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 45) — stock went -4.73% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 46) — stock went -6.38% over the next 7 days2026-08-13: no call (score 45) — stock went -7.89% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: no call (score 45) — stock went -7.60% over the next 7 days2026-08-17: we said UP (score 74), stock went -11.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: no call (score 46) — stock went -8.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: no call (score 48) — stock went -6.74% over the next 7 days2026-08-20: no call (score 45) — stock went -5.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-21: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-25: no call (score 44) — stock went -1.47% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: we said UP (score 76), stock went -3.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-27: we said UP (score 76), stock went -2.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-28: we said UP (score 78), stock went -1.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-31: no call (score 46) — stock went -2.16% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.08% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.04% over the next 7 days2026-09-03: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.74% over the next 7 daysJul 1Sep 3
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what SARO actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.