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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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← RARE FULL ANALYSIS

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Forecast

Healthcare$25.32-3.51%

Framler has scored Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical daily since May 5 — 78 published scores, of which 72 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

84bullish
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 84(90%-target range: 34–95 · agreement 49%)

Our daily score for RARE — last 78 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-05-05 score 482026-05-06 score 482026-05-07 score 452026-05-08 score 692026-05-11 score 812026-05-12 score 812026-05-13 score 842026-05-14 score 842026-05-15 score 422026-05-18 score 412026-05-19 score 382026-05-20 score 402026-05-21 score 402026-05-22 score 482026-05-25 score 832026-05-26 score 432026-05-27 score 402026-05-28 score 402026-05-29 score 452026-06-01 score 792026-06-02 score 822026-06-03 score 382026-06-04 score 372026-06-05 score 802026-06-08 score 812026-06-09 score 392026-06-10 score 422026-06-11 score 482026-06-12 score 402026-06-15 score 862026-06-16 score 432026-06-17 score 462026-06-18 score 372026-06-19 score 812026-06-22 score 362026-06-23 score 402026-06-24 score 392026-06-25 score 412026-06-26 score 572026-06-29 score 422026-06-30 score 462026-07-01 score 442026-07-02 score 812026-07-03 score 412026-07-06 score 452026-07-07 score 472026-07-08 score 412026-07-09 score 442026-07-10 score 462026-07-13 score 412026-07-14 score 452026-07-15 score 442026-07-16 score 422026-07-17 score 452026-07-20 score 452026-07-21 score 462026-07-22 score 412026-07-23 score 442026-07-24 score 422026-07-27 score 422026-07-28 score 442026-07-29 score 432026-07-30 score 462026-07-31 score 422026-08-03 score 422026-08-04 score 402026-08-05 score 432026-08-06 score 442026-08-07 score 422026-08-10 score 432026-08-11 score 402026-08-12 score 422026-08-13 score 392026-08-14 score 432026-08-17 score 422026-08-18 score 392026-08-19 score 702026-08-20 score 84May 5Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for RARE each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 46 of these 78 days sat in the middle zone — the model has not made a strong call on this stock recently. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on RARE? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 28 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 10 · WRONG 18
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%2026-05-05: no call (score 48) — stock went +7.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 48) — stock went +5.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.50% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: we said UP (score 69), stock went -4.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 81), stock went -10.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG
Current RegimeRISK ON

Markets are in an expansionary regime. Momentum and growth factors tend to perform well.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
Sector SpilloverSTRONG
Sector MomentumSTRONG
Options FlowSTRONG
MomentumSTRONG
AccrualsSTRONG
ValueSTRONG
Earnings DriftGOOD
BEARISH FACTORS

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for RARE a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full RARE analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-05-12: we said UP (score 81), stock went -14.64% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: we said UP (score 84), stock went -11.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-14: we said UP (score 84), stock went -10.39% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-15: no call (score 42) — stock went -9.34% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 41) — stock went -7.44% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -4.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +4.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-21: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -0.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.97% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: we said UP (score 83), stock went -2.31% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-26: no call (score 43) — stock went -6.88% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -3.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -0.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: no call (score 45) — stock went -5.80% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: we said UP (score 79), stock went -9.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-02: we said UP (score 82), stock went -0.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +5.46% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +7.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 80), stock went +4.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-08: we said UP (score 81), stock went +15.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +15.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-10: no call (score 42) — stock went +18.08% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 48) — stock went +19.46% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +21.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: we said UP (score 86), stock went +19.22% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: no call (score 43) — stock went +13.32% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 46) — stock went +17.14% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +8.70% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-19: we said UP (score 81), stock went +12.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +11.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +15.02% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +12.59% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 41) — stock went +14.98% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 57) — stock went +15.21% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 42) — stock went +9.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 46) — stock went +16.92% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 44) — stock went +3.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said UP (score 81), stock went +6.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 41) — stock went +1.05% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.96% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 41) — stock went -13.58% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 44) — stock went -12.84% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 46) — stock went -15.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 41) — stock went -15.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 45) — stock went -13.85% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 44) — stock went -13.69% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 42) — stock went -14.79% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 45) — stock went -10.99% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 45) — stock went -8.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 46) — stock went -8.94% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 41) — stock went -12.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 44) — stock went -5.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 42) — stock went -7.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 42) — stock went -6.99% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 44) — stock went -4.02% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 43) — stock went -4.04% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 46) — stock went +3.28% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 42) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 42) — stock went +7.59% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +7.75% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: no call (score 43) — stock went +4.07% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 44) — stock went +5.82% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.59% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 43) — stock went +0.85% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -4.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.67% over the next 7 daysMay 5Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what RARE actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.

Short Interest
POOR
QualityPOOR
Insider FlowPOOR