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NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

NXPI STOCK · NXP Semiconductors NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$222.97-1.35%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
75
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [25–95]Top driver: Sector Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 55.6%mean ret +1.18%n=4719Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why NXPI scores 75

  • -Sector underperforming broader market
  • -Industry-link drag from peer weakness
  • +High-quality fundamentals (Novy-Marx gross profitability)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on NXPI? — 81 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 39 OF 81 DAYS — RIGHT 19 · WRONG 20
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%2026-04-22: no call (score 50) — stock went +28.84% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: no call (score 50) — stock went +30.05% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-24: no call (score 55) — stock went +22.42% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: no call (score 51) — stock went +19.14% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 51) — stock went +23.42% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 46) — stock went +31.75% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 41) — stock went +0.34% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: we said UP (score 74), stock went +0.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-04: we said UP (score 73), stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: we said UP (score 64), stock went +0.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-06: we said UP (score 64), stock went +2.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: we said UP (score 61), stock went -3.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 63), stock went +0.44% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-11: we said UP (score 74), stock went -0.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: we said UP (score 74), stock went -3.83% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: we said UP (score 70), stock went +3.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 70), stock went +0.33% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said UP (score 62), stock went +7.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: no call (score 55) — stock went +14.12% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 58) — stock went +14.05% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: we said UP (score 61), stock went +11.88% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 62), stock went +6.49% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 62), stock went +7.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: no call (score 57) — stock went -1.61% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: we said UP (score 61), stock went -3.24% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.13% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 50) — stock went -10.39% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 59) — stock went -6.29% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.49% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 57) — stock went -11.76% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 59) — stock went -6.01% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: we said UP (score 60), stock went -5.39% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 71), stock went +6.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: no call (score 46) — stock went +0.58% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 61), stock went +0.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 70), stock went +9.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 43) — stock went +6.84% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 61), stock went +6.03% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 71), stock went -5.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.92% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 41) — stock went +0.15% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 47) — stock went -11.57% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 60), stock went -11.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 60), stock went -13.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 71), stock went -6.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said UP (score 66), stock went -7.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.07% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said UP (score 70), stock went +1.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 57) — stock went +0.99% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 59) — stock went +4.07% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said UP (score 69), stock went +6.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 49) — stock went +1.84% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 54) — stock went +4.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 74), stock went -4.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went -8.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 58) — stock went -8.58% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: we said UP (score 73), stock went -1.88% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-15: we said UP (score 74), stock went -1.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.62% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.52% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.02% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 58) — stock went -11.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: we said UP (score 71), stock went -12.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said UP (score 72), stock went -17.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 72), stock went -16.74% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: no call (score 55) — stock went -11.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 45) — stock went -10.79% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 48) — stock went -3.82% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.22% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 58) — stock went +1.86% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.45% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 70), stock went -1.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.33% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: we said UP (score 60), stock went +1.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-10: we said UP (score 72), stock went -2.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.09% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: we said UP (score 61), stock went -4.38% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 22Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what NXPI actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.