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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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NVR Inc. (NVR) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

NVR STOCK · NVR Inc. NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$6,300.00-1.85%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
50
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 49.4%mean ret -1.39%n=439Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why NVR scores 50

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • +Sector in favour — rotation tailwind

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on NVR? — 70 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 10 OF 70 DAYS — RIGHT 5 · WRONG 5

Why so much grey? The score only takes a side when enough of the 13 factors agree on a direction. On NVR they have mostly pointed different ways and cancelled each other out, so the honest output was “no call” — the model doesn't manufacture an opinion to have one. Nothing is missing here: across all 1,001 stocks about a third of graded days carry a call; this stock just hasn't been one of them lately.

-5%0%+5%2026-05-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -6.87% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 52) — stock went -7.41% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went -3.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-12: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went -2.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.86% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-14: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.73% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-15: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +6.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-18: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +8.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.53% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.62% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 45) — stock went +2.84% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 52) — stock went +0.94% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.40% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 48) — stock went +2.38% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 47) — stock went +1.44% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 47) — stock went +1.30% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 43) — stock went +0.36% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 42) — stock went +1.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 42) — stock went +4.66% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.01% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 46) — stock went +5.89% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 43) — stock went +3.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.47% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 41) — stock went +3.98% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 45) — stock went -2.04% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 56) — stock went +2.95% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 41) — stock went -1.96% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.35% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: no call (score 43) — stock went +0.86% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 42) — stock went +5.08% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 41) — stock went +8.58% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 43) — stock went +5.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 44) — stock went +5.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: no call (score 53) — stock went +7.25% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: no call (score 41) — stock went +3.98% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -0.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.77% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 46) — stock went -1.98% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.87% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 47) — stock went -5.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 45) — stock went -2.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -4.02% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 51) — stock went -4.63% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 47) — stock went -3.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 47) — stock went +4.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 42) — stock went +0.29% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.51% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 44) — stock went -1.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.46% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.27% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.27% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 46) — stock went +0.38% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.89% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.39% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 45) — stock went -3.28% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.70% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.63% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -1.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-31: no call (score 49) — stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 49) — stock went +2.36% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 52) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 52) — stock went +0.42% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.14% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.05% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.43% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 44) — stock went -0.70% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 48) — stock went -0.17% over the next 7 daysMay 7Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what NVR actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.