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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

NCLH STOCK · Norwegian Cruise Line NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$16.75-3.40%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
51
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why NCLH scores 51

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on NCLH? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 37 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 19 · WRONG 18
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%2026-05-05: no call (score 51) — stock went -5.55% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 51) — stock went -5.19% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 60), stock went -10.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: no call (score 59) — stock went -9.87% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-11: no call (score 51) — stock went -7.37% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 51) — stock went -10.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.12% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.55% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 54) — stock went +10.18% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 48) — stock went +12.06% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 52) — stock went +22.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 51) — stock went +14.04% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: we said UP (score 72), stock went +11.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 71), stock went +10.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: no call (score 51) — stock went +11.23% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 51) — stock went +6.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said UP (score 72), stock went +5.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 73), stock went +2.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.15% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 52) — stock went +5.37% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 76), stock went -1.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 74), stock went +5.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said UP (score 75), stock went +1.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-08: we said UP (score 75), stock went +7.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said UP (score 78), stock went +9.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-10: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said UP (score 79), stock went +14.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 44) — stock went +5.14% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 74), stock went +3.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 70), stock went +1.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: we said UP (score 70), stock went +3.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: we said UP (score 66), stock went +5.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: no call (score 47) — stock went +3.91% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 67), stock went +7.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 66), stock went +5.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: no call (score 59) — stock went +1.37% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: we said UP (score 74), stock went -5.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: we said UP (score 78), stock went -8.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: we said UP (score 92), stock went -9.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: we said UP (score 77), stock went -14.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-01: we said UP (score 88), stock went -12.51% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-02: we said UP (score 70), stock went -4.40% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.86% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 48) — stock went -0.76% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.04% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 48) — stock went +4.46% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 52) — stock went +6.17% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: we said UP (score 91), stock went -1.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.61% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-15: we said UP (score 76), stock went -0.67% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: we said UP (score 65), stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.22% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-20: we said UP (score 62), stock went +2.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +8.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said UP (score 81), stock went +6.68% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: no call (score 51) — stock went -3.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: we said UP (score 73), stock went -0.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 73), stock went +2.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: we said UP (score 63), stock went +0.20% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: we said UP (score 72), stock went -4.34% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-30: no call (score 58) — stock went -6.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 50) — stock went +2.83% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.11% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 58) — stock went -5.36% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 92), stock went -5.73% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: we said UP (score 79), stock went -3.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: no call (score 46) — stock went -1.86% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.56% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 44) — stock went -5.07% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 52) — stock went -7.27% over the next 7 daysMay 5Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what NCLH actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.