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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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Marvell Technology (MRVL) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

MRVL STOCK · Marvell Technology NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$272.29+1.57%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
50
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Sector Spillover
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 52.3%mean ret +0.53%n=262Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why MRVL scores 50

  • +Sector in favour — rotation tailwind
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • -Accrual quality weak — earnings ahead of cash flow

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on MRVL? — 116 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 68 OF 116 DAYS — RIGHT 31 · WRONG 37
-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+35%+40%+45%+50%+55%+60%2026-04-16: no call (score 52) — stock went +23.00% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 46) — stock went +23.20% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.65% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.48% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +4.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -0.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-27: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.40% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 41) — stock went +6.66% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 41) — stock went +12.35% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +2.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +3.02% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: no call (score 53) — stock went +3.57% over the next 7 days2026-05-05: no call (score 43) — stock went -2.52% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 43) — stock went +5.45% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 43) — stock went +6.06% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 43) — stock went +10.55% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 43) — stock went -2.68% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 43) — stock went +3.18% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +5.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-14: no call (score 43) — stock went +7.16% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 43) — stock went +7.53% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 44) — stock went +17.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 41) — stock went +23.28% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 50) — stock went +12.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 43) — stock went +9.65% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 42) — stock went +7.50% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +11.77% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-26: no call (score 42) — stock went +48.11% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 42) — stock went +44.84% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 45) — stock went +59.25% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 42) — stock went +28.63% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 41) — stock went +40.90% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 42) — stock went +21.62% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 42) — stock went -13.14% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 42) — stock went -6.94% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 42) — stock went -11.61% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +17.24% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 43) — stock went -3.52% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 44) — stock went +8.49% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +22.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: no call (score 44) — stock went +9.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: no call (score 50) — stock went +10.07% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -9.66% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -0.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 55) — stock went -2.86% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -14.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: no call (score 55) — stock went -10.57% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -3.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -2.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -11.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: no call (score 43) — stock went -11.37% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went -6.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -16.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -22.22% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -10.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went -3.86% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -11.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-07: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went -13.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-08: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -6.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-09: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -18.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -22.44% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -17.33% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-14: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -4.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -5.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +1.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +3.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-20: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-21: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -10.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -21.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -13.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -10.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -0.23% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went +12.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-29: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went +20.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-30: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +28.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-31: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +19.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-03: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +11.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +9.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -0.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +5.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +5.45% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +7.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +3.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +11.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-13: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +15.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-14: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +6.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-17: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +3.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +2.58% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-19: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +4.60% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-20: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +1.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-21: no call (score 44) — stock went -13.70% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: we said DOWN (score 26), stock went -10.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-25: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went -8.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-26: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -14.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-27: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -14.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-28: we said DOWN (score 26), stock went -7.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-31: no call (score 43) — stock went +4.06% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: no call (score 42) — stock went +6.50% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: no call (score 41) — stock went +11.70% over the next 7 days2026-09-03: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +9.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-04: no call (score 41) — stock went +13.06% over the next 7 days2026-09-07: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.12% over the next 7 days2026-09-08: no call (score 41) — stock went -0.83% over the next 7 days2026-09-09: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +1.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-10: no call (score 43) — stock went +2.45% over the next 7 days2026-09-11: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +7.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-14: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +9.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-15: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +19.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-16: no call (score 50) — stock went +17.68% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: no call (score 43) — stock went +12.73% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +8.80% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-21: no call (score 41) — stock went +3.13% over the next 7 days2026-09-22: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +2.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-23: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-24: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +2.75% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-25: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +5.15% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 16Sep 25
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what MRVL actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.