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← MRK FULL ANALYSIS

Merck & Co. (MRK) Forecast

Healthcare$148.99-2.11%

Framler has scored Merck & Co. daily since Apr 16 — 91 published scores, of which 84 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

70bullish
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 70(90%-target range: 20–95 · agreement 59%)

Our daily score for MRK — last 91 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-04-16 score 432026-04-17 score 422026-04-20 score 502026-04-21 score 452026-04-22 score 422026-04-23 score 772026-04-24 score 762026-04-27 score 212026-04-28 score 212026-04-29 score 212026-04-30 score 222026-05-01 score 222026-05-04 score 232026-05-05 score 242026-05-06 score 242026-05-07 score 282026-05-08 score 232026-05-11 score 452026-05-12 score 322026-05-13 score 362026-05-14 score 382026-05-15 score 352026-05-18 score 452026-05-19 score 392026-05-20 score 672026-05-21 score 652026-05-22 score 652026-05-25 score 652026-05-26 score 662026-05-27 score 382026-05-28 score 352026-05-29 score 362026-06-01 score 502026-06-02 score 532026-06-03 score 682026-06-04 score 402026-06-05 score 652026-06-08 score 522026-06-09 score 532026-06-10 score 332026-06-11 score 412026-06-12 score 332026-06-15 score 272026-06-16 score 282026-06-17 score 642026-06-18 score 512026-06-19 score 692026-06-22 score 682026-06-23 score 662026-06-24 score 382026-06-25 score 372026-06-26 score 382026-06-29 score 382026-06-30 score 382026-07-01 score 402026-07-02 score 382026-07-03 score 592026-07-06 score 602026-07-07 score 522026-07-08 score 612026-07-09 score 662026-07-10 score 392026-07-13 score 392026-07-14 score 622026-07-15 score 392026-07-16 score 612026-07-17 score 622026-07-20 score 372026-07-21 score 392026-07-22 score 612026-07-23 score 622026-07-24 score 602026-07-27 score 612026-07-28 score 502026-07-29 score 372026-07-30 score 512026-07-31 score 472026-08-03 score 402026-08-04 score 612026-08-05 score 512026-08-06 score 562026-08-07 score 542026-08-10 score 782026-08-11 score 732026-08-12 score 772026-08-13 score 752026-08-14 score 852026-08-17 score 812026-08-18 score 872026-08-19 score 382026-08-20 score 70Apr 16Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for MRK each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 38 of these 91 days sat in the red zone — the model has been leaning against this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on MRK? — 84 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 64 OF 84 DAYS — RIGHT 32 · WRONG 32
-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-16: no call (score 43) — stock went -2.78% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 42) — stock went -3.08% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 45) — stock went -6.04% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 42) — stock went -1.43% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said UP (score 77), stock went -3.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said UP (score 76), stock went -2.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-27: we said DOWN (score 21), stock went +1.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-28: we said DOWN (score 21), stock went +2.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-29: we said DOWN (score 21), stock went +3.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG
Current RegimeTRANSITION

Markets are shifting between regimes. Factor leadership is rotating; signals may be noisier than usual.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
Options FlowSTRONG
Sector SpilloverSTRONG
Sector MomentumSTRONG
Earnings DriftSTRONG
MomentumSTRONG
BEARISH FACTORS
ValueWEAK

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for MRK a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full MRK analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 22), stock went +1.22% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: we said DOWN (score 22), stock went +2.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: we said DOWN (score 23), stock went -0.78% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: we said DOWN (score 24), stock went -0.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-06: we said DOWN (score 24), stock went +0.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-07: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went -0.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-08: we said DOWN (score 23), stock went -0.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-11: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.93% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +2.66% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-13: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -0.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +2.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-15: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +7.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-18: no call (score 45) — stock went +7.49% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +6.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said UP (score 67), stock went +5.25% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 65), stock went +6.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 65), stock went +2.45% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 65), stock went -5.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-26: we said UP (score 66), stock went -5.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -4.19% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +0.02% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +0.75% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 53) — stock went +3.85% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 68), stock went +2.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 65), stock went -1.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.88% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.64% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -3.48% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: no call (score 41) — stock went -4.38% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -4.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-15: we said DOWN (score 27), stock went -3.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said DOWN (score 28), stock went +4.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 64), stock went +4.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 51) — stock went +8.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: we said UP (score 69), stock went +12.99% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said UP (score 68), stock went +13.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 66), stock went +11.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +4.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +7.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +1.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -1.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -1.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 59) — stock went -4.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: we said UP (score 60), stock went -4.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-07: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.21% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: we said UP (score 61), stock went -3.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said UP (score 66), stock went +1.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +1.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +0.70% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 62), stock went +1.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +5.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: we said UP (score 61), stock went +5.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: we said UP (score 62), stock went +2.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +2.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-21: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +5.96% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 61), stock went +3.25% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went +1.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: no call (score 50) — stock went -2.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -2.65% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 47) — stock went -0.93% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.55% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-05: no call (score 51) — stock went +3.84% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 56) — stock went +5.63% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.82% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 78), stock went +5.75% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 73), stock went +3.25% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: we said UP (score 77), stock went +16.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHTApr 16Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what MRK actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.