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Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

MPWR STOCK · Monolithic Power Systems NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$1,310.60+0.80%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
77
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [27–95]Top driver: Sector Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 59.1%mean ret +2.34%n=2814Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why MPWR scores 77

  • -Sector underperforming broader market
  • +Recent earnings surprise still drifting (Bernard-Thomas)
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on MPWR? — 82 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 40 OF 82 DAYS — RIGHT 18 · WRONG 22
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-04-21: no call (score 51) — stock went +2.43% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.07% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: no call (score 45) — stock went +6.07% over the next 7 days2026-04-24: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.55% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.60% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.03% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 41) — stock went +9.86% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-30: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +3.22% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-01: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.84% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: we said UP (score 65), stock went +4.90% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: no call (score 54) — stock went +0.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 54) — stock went +3.92% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 71), stock went -2.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 73), stock went -1.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 54) — stock went -8.33% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 54) — stock went -11.62% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 45) — stock went -6.22% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 45) — stock went -5.40% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.50% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 48) — stock went +7.29% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 44) — stock went +11.88% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 43) — stock went +10.36% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 58) — stock went +0.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.98% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +2.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +1.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +2.00% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: no call (score 46) — stock went -9.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -0.45% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 49) — stock went -9.35% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -5.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -4.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-08: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +11.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 41) — stock went -3.87% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -5.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +6.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went -3.25% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 64), stock went -2.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-16: no call (score 57) — stock went -13.83% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 58) — stock went -4.26% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 42) — stock went -0.68% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 47) — stock went -16.01% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 63), stock went -16.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went -10.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went -6.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: no call (score 43) — stock went -10.23% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -6.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +2.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: no call (score 42) — stock went -3.04% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 54) — stock went -4.84% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went +3.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: no call (score 41) — stock went +5.01% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 41) — stock went +0.25% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +8.80% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -0.75% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said UP (score 73), stock went -4.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said UP (score 72), stock went -1.77% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: no call (score 50) — stock went +7.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 42) — stock went +1.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +3.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: we said UP (score 71), stock went +2.16% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: we said UP (score 71), stock went +2.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-21: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -3.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -9.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: no call (score 42) — stock went -5.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +2.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.30% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: we said UP (score 71), stock went +4.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 48) — stock went +8.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 72), stock went +6.49% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 72), stock went -3.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: no call (score 58) — stock went +4.29% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 62), stock went +6.74% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: we said UP (score 60), stock went +1.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-07: we said UP (score 76), stock went +3.16% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-10: we said UP (score 62), stock went +1.03% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 74), stock went -3.47% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: we said UP (score 64), stock went -7.27% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 21Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what MPWR actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.