Framler
Signal Feed
WatchlistTrack Record
⌕
LIVE
Framler · © 2026
Engine
MethodologySectorsPatternsCompareAlternativesScreenersGlossaryTrack RecordSleeve P&LShort SqueezeTop Rated
Research moat
MoatResearchCase Study: NVDA
Company
InvestorsPressBlogChangelogRoadmapAPIAboutContact
FEATURED ANALYSISNVDATSLAAAPLAMDMSFTMETA
Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
TRUSTThe BetLedgerStatusSecurity·LEGALTermsPrivacyDisclaimer
← MP FULL ANALYSIS

MP Materials (MP) Forecast

Basic Materials$55.04-2.89%

Framler has scored MP Materials daily since May 7 — 76 published scores, of which 70 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

28mixed
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 28(90%-target range: 5–78 · agreement 55%)

Our daily score for MP — last 76 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-05-07 score 752026-05-08 score 742026-05-11 score 322026-05-12 score 322026-05-13 score 252026-05-14 score 252026-05-15 score 322026-05-18 score 312026-05-19 score 392026-05-20 score 322026-05-21 score 322026-05-22 score 392026-05-25 score 392026-05-26 score 372026-05-27 score 382026-05-28 score 382026-05-29 score 312026-06-01 score 382026-06-02 score 322026-06-03 score 392026-06-04 score 372026-06-05 score 332026-06-08 score 332026-06-09 score 322026-06-10 score 302026-06-11 score 342026-06-12 score 322026-06-15 score 412026-06-16 score 402026-06-17 score 332026-06-18 score 342026-06-19 score 392026-06-22 score 362026-06-23 score 392026-06-24 score 312026-06-25 score 292026-06-26 score 332026-06-29 score 322026-06-30 score 312026-07-01 score 392026-07-02 score 392026-07-03 score 312026-07-06 score 342026-07-07 score 312026-07-08 score 342026-07-09 score 322026-07-10 score 392026-07-13 score 372026-07-14 score 312026-07-15 score 402026-07-16 score 332026-07-17 score 312026-07-20 score 312026-07-21 score 382026-07-22 score 332026-07-23 score 192026-07-24 score 312026-07-27 score 312026-07-28 score 412026-07-29 score 462026-07-30 score 292026-07-31 score 422026-08-03 score 422026-08-04 score 412026-08-05 score 422026-08-06 score 352026-08-07 score 322026-08-10 score 312026-08-11 score 362026-08-12 score 392026-08-13 score 472026-08-14 score 842026-08-17 score 832026-08-18 score 842026-08-19 score 822026-08-20 score 28May 7Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for MP each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 62 of these 76 days sat in the red zone — the model has been leaning against this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on MP? — 70 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 63 OF 70 DAYS — RIGHT 39 · WRONG 24
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%
Current RegimeRISK ON

Markets are in an expansionary regime. Momentum and growth factors tend to perform well.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
Sector MomentumSTRONG
Options FlowSTRONG
BEARISH FACTORS
Short InterestPOOR
QualityPOOR

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for MP a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full MP analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-05-07: we said UP (score 75), stock went -16.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 74), stock went -11.37% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -16.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-12: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -18.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said DOWN (score 25), stock went -12.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said DOWN (score 25), stock went -3.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +6.88% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-18: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went +9.34% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +18.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +18.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-21: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +18.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-22: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +4.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-25: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +7.49% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-26: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +12.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-27: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +2.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +0.38% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -11.45% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -11.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -21.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-03: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -26.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -16.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -12.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-08: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -1.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -0.92% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +12.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-11: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +13.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +5.44% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: no call (score 41) — stock went +4.76% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +1.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -0.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -8.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -11.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -10.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -7.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -7.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went -5.66% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -4.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -1.65% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -7.76% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -5.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -4.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -2.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -7.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-07: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -4.19% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-08: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +0.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -14.23% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -12.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -12.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-14: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -6.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -10.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -9.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -9.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-20: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -4.66% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-21: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -9.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -17.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 19), stock went -8.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went -7.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went +6.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-28: no call (score 41) — stock went +10.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 46) — stock went +16.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went +24.65% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-31: no call (score 42) — stock went +22.68% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 42) — stock went +32.12% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 41) — stock went +26.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 42) — stock went +13.99% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +16.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went +23.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said DOWN (score 31), stock went +14.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +3.68% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +2.61% over the next 7 days — WRONGMay 7Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what MP actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.