Framler has scored Happen Bank daily since Jul 14 — 32 published scores, of which 26 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.
The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for HAPN each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 15 of these 32 days sat in the red zone — the model has been leaning against this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.
Markets are shifting between regimes. Factor leadership is rotating; signals may be noisier than usual.
Most forecast sites will print an exact price for HAPN a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.
Each bar is what HAPN actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.