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Comfort Systems USA (FIX) company logo
Industrials · NYSE
Calibration 2/4:●1d●7d○30d○90d

FIX STOCK · Comfort Systems USA BearishMulti-factor aligned

$1,698.77+1.43%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
51
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 56.7%mean ret +2.11%n=13577Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why FIX scores 51

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +High-quality fundamentals (Novy-Marx gross profitability)
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on FIX? — 65 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 18 OF 65 DAYS — RIGHT 6 · WRONG 12
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-05-05: no call (score 45) — stock went +2.49% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 45) — stock went +3.43% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.53% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: we said UP (score 64), stock went +2.61% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-11: no call (score 57) — stock went -7.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 57) — stock went -10.21% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-13: no call (score 54) — stock went -10.11% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 54) — stock went -9.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 57) — stock went -10.48% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 70), stock went -5.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.57% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 48) — stock went +2.28% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.07% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 58) — stock went -0.39% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.21% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.01% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: we said UP (score 68), stock went -1.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-28: we said UP (score 67), stock went +2.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 67), stock went -0.60% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: no call (score 59) — stock went +1.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 44) — stock went +2.44% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 45) — stock went -8.70% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.93% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 44) — stock went +5.86% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 42) — stock went +3.34% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.47% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said UP (score 65), stock went +14.42% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 43) — stock went +12.10% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 67), stock went +10.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 60), stock went -2.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 42) — stock went +4.44% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 44) — stock went -5.75% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went -4.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 60), stock went -2.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 47) — stock went -10.91% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 47) — stock went -11.13% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 48) — stock went -13.61% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 47) — stock went -14.99% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.49% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.85% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 44) — stock went +3.25% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.26% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.03% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: no call (score 44) — stock went +0.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 45) — stock went +5.44% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 45) — stock went +3.15% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 45) — stock went +3.37% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 60), stock went -5.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 60), stock went -14.30% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said UP (score 60), stock went -5.20% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: no call (score 59) — stock went -5.54% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 59) — stock went +2.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.63% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 46) — stock went +6.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 48) — stock went +12.74% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.19% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 57) — stock went -3.17% over the next 7 daysMay 5Aug 3
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what FIX actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.