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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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Expedia Group (EXPE) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

EXPE STOCK · Expedia Group BullishMulti-factor aligned

$265.00+0.89%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
63
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Consumer Cyclical has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Quality
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why EXPE scores 63

  • +High-quality fundamentals (Novy-Marx gross profitability)
  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on EXPE? — 103 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 71 OF 103 DAYS — RIGHT 43 · WRONG 28
-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-05-05: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -10.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-06: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -12.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -11.96% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 55) — stock went -13.87% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.36% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-12: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.92% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 58) — stock went -1.51% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 58) — stock went +0.26% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 58) — stock went -1.16% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 69), stock went +2.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: no call (score 58) — stock went +5.38% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.58% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: we said UP (score 63), stock went +3.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 70), stock went +6.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: no call (score 58) — stock went +5.46% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 57) — stock went +1.09% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said UP (score 68), stock went +0.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 68), stock went +0.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: we said UP (score 63), stock went +0.05% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: no call (score 58) — stock went +1.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 65), stock went -3.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 64), stock went -0.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 69), stock went -1.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 71), stock went +3.54% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said UP (score 64), stock went +7.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-10: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said UP (score 68), stock went +10.03% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.95% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 72), stock went +5.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 70), stock went +3.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: we said UP (score 67), stock went +7.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: we said UP (score 64), stock went +4.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: we said UP (score 64), stock went +9.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said UP (score 67), stock went +10.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 65), stock went +7.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went +7.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.49% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 65), stock went +6.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.51% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: we said UP (score 64), stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: no call (score 57) — stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.22% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said UP (score 62), stock went +0.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: we said UP (score 64), stock went -1.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-07: we said UP (score 66), stock went -0.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-08: no call (score 58) — stock went -1.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 67), stock went +4.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.37% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: we said UP (score 64), stock went -2.12% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 68), stock went -0.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -1.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said UP (score 70), stock went -3.56% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: we said UP (score 67), stock went -4.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-20: we said UP (score 67), stock went +3.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-21: no call (score 58) — stock went +11.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said UP (score 62), stock went +14.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: no call (score 58) — stock went +12.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 57) — stock went +14.41% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 57) — stock went +14.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: we said UP (score 63), stock went +12.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: we said UP (score 61), stock went +8.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.76% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 60), stock went +6.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 60), stock went +6.54% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: we said UP (score 62), stock went +7.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-05: we said UP (score 65), stock went +4.33% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: we said UP (score 64), stock went +2.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-07: no call (score 55) — stock went +8.52% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 68), stock went +2.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 69), stock went +2.36% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: we said UP (score 68), stock went +1.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-13: we said UP (score 66), stock went -0.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-14: we said UP (score 69), stock went -2.03% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-17: we said UP (score 69), stock went +1.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-18: no call (score 56) — stock went +6.11% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: we said UP (score 61), stock went +3.74% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-20: we said UP (score 65), stock went -2.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-21: we said UP (score 60), stock went +1.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-24: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.40% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-25: we said UP (score 67), stock went -10.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-26: we said UP (score 63), stock went -8.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-27: we said UP (score 63), stock went -9.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-28: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.55% over the next 7 days2026-08-31: we said UP (score 65), stock went -16.66% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-01: we said UP (score 66), stock went -13.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-02: no call (score 55) — stock went -10.40% over the next 7 days2026-09-03: no call (score 54) — stock went -10.12% over the next 7 days2026-09-04: we said UP (score 64), stock went -7.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-07: we said UP (score 60), stock went -3.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-08: we said UP (score 61), stock went -1.66% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-09: we said UP (score 60), stock went +4.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-10: no call (score 55) — stock went +4.38% over the next 7 days2026-09-11: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.89% over the next 7 days2026-09-14: we said UP (score 65), stock went +0.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-15: we said UP (score 67), stock went -10.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-16: we said UP (score 68), stock went -11.61% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-17: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -8.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-18: we said UP (score 63), stock went -7.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-21: we said UP (score 61), stock went -5.41% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-22: we said UP (score 62), stock went -5.23% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-23: we said UP (score 68), stock went -6.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-24: we said UP (score 64), stock went +1.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHTMay 5Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what EXPE actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.