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Etsy Inc. (ETSY) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

ETSY STOCK · Etsy Inc. Neutral

$81.21+0.93%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
58
AgreementCONFLICTED

Major factor streams disagree — low conviction.

90% interval: [8–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 48.1%mean ret +1.47%n=1241Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why ETSY scores 58

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on ETSY? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 27 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 17 · WRONG 10
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-05-05: no call (score 49) — stock went -8.64% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 49) — stock went -8.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 60), stock went -10.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: no call (score 58) — stock went -9.29% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 54) — stock went -4.04% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.76% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.61% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.82% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-15: no call (score 55) — stock went +6.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 57) — stock went +10.78% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 45) — stock went +9.35% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: we said UP (score 61), stock went +10.76% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: no call (score 50) — stock went +9.67% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 59) — stock went +11.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 58) — stock went +10.61% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: we said UP (score 62), stock went +11.78% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: we said UP (score 76), stock went +4.23% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said UP (score 74), stock went +5.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 60), stock went +0.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: we said UP (score 76), stock went +1.34% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: we said UP (score 77), stock went -0.35% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: we said UP (score 77), stock went -1.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 76), stock went +3.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-05: no call (score 54) — stock went +3.62% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 51) — stock went +7.97% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 50) — stock went +6.55% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 75), stock went +5.92% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 64), stock went +7.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +4.46% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: we said UP (score 84), stock went +4.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: no call (score 59) — stock went +3.74% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: we said UP (score 63), stock went +6.38% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 56) — stock went +6.69% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: we said UP (score 60), stock went +5.53% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said UP (score 81), stock went +7.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 81), stock went +3.85% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: no call (score 55) — stock went -2.75% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: no call (score 54) — stock went -1.35% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 80), stock went -3.40% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: no call (score 49) — stock went -3.82% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 48) — stock went -2.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 54) — stock went +2.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 47) — stock went +6.71% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.30% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 58) — stock went +4.63% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: we said UP (score 79), stock went +10.66% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-08: no call (score 48) — stock went +8.45% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 80), stock went +8.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went +8.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.68% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: we said UP (score 75), stock went +1.44% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: we said UP (score 76), stock went -5.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: no call (score 46) — stock went -3.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 55) — stock went +2.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 55) — stock went +4.76% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 53) — stock went +3.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 59) — stock went +3.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 50) — stock went +3.09% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: we said UP (score 73), stock went -0.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-30: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 56) — stock went +2.89% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.57% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 51) — stock went -4.44% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 51) — stock went -7.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: we said UP (score 63), stock went -6.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: no call (score 50) — stock went -2.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 77), stock went -8.35% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: no call (score 46) — stock went -0.55% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.23% over the next 7 daysMay 5Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what ETSY actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.