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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) company logo
Consumer Defensive · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

ELF STOCK · e.l.f. Beauty BullishMulti-factor aligned

$98.46-1.19%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
74
⚠Sector calibration · weak
Engine accuracy in Consumer Defensive has been negative on recent rolling windows — the composite has read against the realised direction. Do not act on the composite alone. Rely on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow until the next calibration window restores edge.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [24–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.6%mean ret +2.51%n=3927Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why ELF scores 74

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on ELF? — 72 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 26 OF 72 DAYS — RIGHT 17 · WRONG 9
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%2026-05-05: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.33% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 54) — stock went -9.56% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 59) — stock went -9.70% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-05-08: we said UP (score 72), stock went -8.67% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.00% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 47) — stock went -6.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 47) — stock went -1.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 55) — stock went -4.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 55) — stock went -4.08% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.33% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 51) — stock went +8.27% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 49) — stock went +13.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 50) — stock went +5.42% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 54) — stock went +1.12% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.95% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said UP (score 72), stock went -10.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said UP (score 73), stock went -13.64% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.64% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 46) — stock went +4.08% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 44) — stock went +11.81% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 49) — stock went +16.71% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 51) — stock went +18.88% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 53) — stock went +29.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 49) — stock went +28.02% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 54) — stock went +11.87% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said UP (score 79), stock went +10.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: we said UP (score 77), stock went +4.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-15: no call (score 49) — stock went +3.32% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said UP (score 80), stock went -0.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 86), stock went -3.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: we said UP (score 77), stock went +4.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: no call (score 46) — stock went +5.03% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 75), stock went +8.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 76), stock went +17.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said UP (score 90), stock went +24.04% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: no call (score 57) — stock went +18.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: we said UP (score 78), stock went +12.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said UP (score 77), stock went +8.99% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said UP (score 77), stock went +7.77% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said UP (score 76), stock went +0.20% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: we said UP (score 73), stock went -3.80% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: we said UP (score 77), stock went +0.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.73% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -1.69% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 47) — stock went -2.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 78), stock went +0.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said UP (score 93), stock went -2.73% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 57) — stock went +6.39% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 48) — stock went +9.38% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 55) — stock went +2.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 48) — stock went +3.85% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 48) — stock went +14.00% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 77), stock went +5.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.25% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 51) — stock went +4.09% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 47) — stock went +8.85% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 47) — stock went +6.83% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: we said UP (score 85), stock went +4.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: no call (score 59) — stock went +2.70% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 49) — stock went +14.10% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 84), stock went +19.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 84), stock went +14.90% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: no call (score 52) — stock went +14.94% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.44% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 53) — stock went +6.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -0.94% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 74), stock went -4.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: we said UP (score 67), stock went -2.87% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: we said UP (score 65), stock went +4.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHTMay 5Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what ELF actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.