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← DUOL FULL ANALYSIS

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) Forecast

Technology$147.03+0.68%

Framler has scored Duolingo Inc. daily since Apr 21 — 88 published scores, of which 82 are old enough to be graded against what the stock actually did next. Both are below, unfiltered.

90bullish
FRAMLER SCORE · /100
Prediction Interval
Score: 90(90%-target range: 40–95 · agreement 57%)

Our daily score for DUOL — last 88 published days

LEANS BULLISHNO STRONG CALLLEANS BEARISH0204060801002026-04-21 score 482026-04-22 score 512026-04-23 score 542026-04-24 score 522026-04-27 score 832026-04-28 score 842026-04-29 score 512026-04-30 score 842026-05-01 score 842026-05-04 score 842026-05-05 score 512026-05-06 score 512026-05-07 score 492026-05-08 score 512026-05-11 score 882026-05-12 score 882026-05-13 score 872026-05-14 score 872026-05-15 score 882026-05-18 score 872026-05-19 score 752026-05-20 score 762026-05-21 score 502026-05-22 score 492026-05-25 score 512026-05-26 score 562026-05-27 score 872026-05-28 score 522026-05-29 score 402026-06-01 score 402026-06-02 score 862026-06-03 score 862026-06-04 score 472026-06-05 score 462026-06-08 score 872026-06-09 score 852026-06-10 score 862026-06-11 score 872026-06-12 score 832026-06-15 score 922026-06-16 score 522026-06-17 score 422026-06-18 score 402026-06-19 score 442026-06-22 score 882026-06-23 score 872026-06-24 score 862026-06-25 score 392026-06-26 score 792026-06-29 score 442026-06-30 score 602026-07-01 score 512026-07-02 score 492026-07-03 score 912026-07-06 score 432026-07-07 score 902026-07-08 score 872026-07-09 score 892026-07-10 score 762026-07-13 score 892026-07-14 score 482026-07-15 score 392026-07-16 score 902026-07-17 score 522026-07-20 score 522026-07-21 score 892026-07-22 score 502026-07-23 score 462026-07-24 score 462026-07-27 score 462026-07-28 score 912026-07-29 score 442026-07-30 score 522026-07-31 score 512026-08-03 score 512026-08-04 score 552026-08-05 score 582026-08-06 score 502026-08-07 score 492026-08-10 score 892026-08-11 score 872026-08-12 score 782026-08-13 score 512026-08-14 score 912026-08-17 score 462026-08-18 score 472026-08-19 score 892026-08-20 score 90Apr 21Aug 20

The purple line is the 0–100 score we published for DUOL each day. In the green zone (above 60) the model leans bullish; in the red zone (below 40) it leans bearish; in between it isn't making a strong call. 42 of these 88 days sat in the green zone — the model has been leaning positive on this stock. Every point is committed to a public, Bitcoin-anchored ledger — we can't quietly rewrite a bad call.

Were we right on DUOL? — 82 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 44 OF 82 DAYS — RIGHT 28 · WRONG 16
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-21: no call (score 48) — stock went +1.34% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 51) — stock went +4.08% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: no call (score 54) — stock went +4.34% over the next 7 days2026-04-24: no call (score 52) — stock went +10.93% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: we said UP (score 83), stock went +6.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-28: we said UP (score 84), stock went +0.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-29: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.15% over the next 7 days
Current RegimeRISK ON

Markets are in an expansionary regime. Momentum and growth factors tend to perform well.

What the factors say

BULLISH FACTORS
MomentumSTRONG
Options FlowSTRONG
Sector MomentumGOOD
Factor InteractionGOOD
BEARISH FACTORS
Insider FlowPOOR
Short InterestPOOR
NLP ToneWEAK

Why there is no price target here

Most forecast sites will print an exact price for DUOL a year out. We won't: a point target is a guess dressed up as precision. What we publish instead is a 0–100 ranking score with an honest uncertainty range, a daily record of every score we've ever published (anchored in Bitcoin, so it can't be edited after the fact), and a pre-registered public bet on whether the score ranks stocks better than chance. If the model is wrong, this page will say so — that's the product.

View full DUOL analysis — factor breakdown, forward returns, news →
Model-generated forecast based on 13 academic factors. Not investment advice. See methodology for how the Framler score is built.
2026-04-30: we said UP (score 84), stock went +6.36% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-01: we said UP (score 84), stock went -1.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-04: we said UP (score 84), stock went -5.48% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-05: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.90% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 49) — stock went +3.94% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.36% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: we said UP (score 88), stock went +4.68% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-12: we said UP (score 88), stock went +8.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: we said UP (score 87), stock went +1.29% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 87), stock went +0.63% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: we said UP (score 88), stock went -2.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-18: we said UP (score 87), stock went -4.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-19: we said UP (score 75), stock went -5.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: we said UP (score 76), stock went -5.50% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-21: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.41% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 51) — stock went +10.66% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.13% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: we said UP (score 87), stock went +0.86% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: no call (score 52) — stock went +1.23% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +0.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +5.93% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-02: we said UP (score 86), stock went -0.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: we said UP (score 86), stock went +10.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: no call (score 47) — stock went +15.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 46) — stock went +12.35% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: we said UP (score 87), stock went +16.54% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said UP (score 85), stock went +8.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-10: we said UP (score 86), stock went +4.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 87), stock went +2.99% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: we said UP (score 83), stock went +2.75% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-15: we said UP (score 92), stock went +3.77% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: no call (score 52) — stock went +4.03% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 42) — stock went +3.19% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -2.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-19: no call (score 44) — stock went -3.24% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 88), stock went -7.59% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 87), stock went -9.61% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 86), stock went -8.30% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -4.84% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: we said UP (score 79), stock went +8.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: no call (score 44) — stock went +6.77% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: we said UP (score 60), stock went +13.72% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: no call (score 51) — stock went +10.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 49) — stock went +7.21% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said UP (score 91), stock went -0.80% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-06: no call (score 43) — stock went +5.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: we said UP (score 90), stock went -1.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-08: we said UP (score 87), stock went +0.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-09: we said UP (score 89), stock went +1.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said UP (score 76), stock went +3.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: we said UP (score 89), stock went +7.32% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-14: no call (score 48) — stock went -5.77% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -6.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said UP (score 90), stock went -8.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.77% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 89), stock went +5.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: no call (score 50) — stock went +12.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 46) — stock went +11.79% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 46) — stock went +12.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 46) — stock went +11.09% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: we said UP (score 91), stock went +3.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: no call (score 44) — stock went -3.84% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 52) — stock went -12.55% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.02% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.77% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 50) — stock went +6.49% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 49) — stock went +8.36% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 89), stock went -0.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: we said UP (score 87), stock went +1.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: we said UP (score 78), stock went +7.82% over the next 7 days — RIGHTApr 21Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what DUOL actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.