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Corteva Inc. (CTVA) company logo
Basic Materials · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

CTVA STOCK · Corteva Inc. NeutralSingle-factor signal

$11.92-5.17%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
66
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Basic Materials has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementCONFLICTED

Major factor streams disagree — low conviction.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Options Flow
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 54.4%mean ret +2.16%n=1218Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why CTVA scores 66

  • -Options skew negative — hedging flow elevated
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • +Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on CTVA? — 109 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 36 OF 109 DAYS — RIGHT 21 · WRONG 15
-85%-80%-75%-70%-65%-60%-55%-50%-45%-40%-35%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-04-27: no call (score 50) — stock went +2.37% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.64% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 48) — stock went +3.58% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.38% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 49) — stock went +0.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: no call (score 57) — stock went +2.45% over the next 7 days2026-05-05: no call (score 45) — stock went -1.56% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.66% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 54) — stock went +1.87% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.97% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 59) — stock went -2.20% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 59) — stock went -4.64% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 57) — stock went -5.01% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 57) — stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.49% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 57) — stock went -3.80% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.45% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-20: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 58) — stock went +2.28% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.96% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.36% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.50% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 58) — stock went -1.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said UP (score 63), stock went -3.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: we said UP (score 60), stock went -4.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-01: no call (score 59) — stock went -3.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 59) — stock went -3.44% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: we said UP (score 61), stock went -4.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 62), stock went -3.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.70% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 59) — stock went +1.33% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 61), stock went +3.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 63), stock went +5.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 59) — stock went +5.34% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 64), stock went +3.57% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 61), stock went +4.49% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: we said UP (score 63), stock went +4.19% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 58) — stock went +5.49% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: we said UP (score 61), stock went +5.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said UP (score 60), stock went +6.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: no call (score 59) — stock went +7.39% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: we said UP (score 60), stock went +5.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: no call (score 59) — stock went +7.13% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 59) — stock went +5.84% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said UP (score 61), stock went +4.56% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: no call (score 59) — stock went +4.05% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: we said UP (score 60), stock went +0.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: no call (score 57) — stock went +0.38% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-06: we said UP (score 60), stock went +0.31% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-07: no call (score 59) — stock went -1.71% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: we said UP (score 61), stock went -3.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said UP (score 60), stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-10: we said UP (score 64), stock went +4.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: no call (score 56) — stock went +1.28% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: we said UP (score 63), stock went +1.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said UP (score 63), stock went +4.26% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said UP (score 62), stock went +5.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: no call (score 59) — stock went +3.00% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 60), stock went +2.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-22: we said UP (score 62), stock went +4.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 59) — stock went -11.34% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 59) — stock went -14.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: we said UP (score 62), stock went -12.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-29: no call (score 57) — stock went -11.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 57) — stock went -15.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 64), stock went -14.00% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-03: we said UP (score 64), stock went -2.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: no call (score 54) — stock went +0.24% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 64), stock went -3.55% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.66% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.23% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 59) — stock went -1.07% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 44) — stock went +1.88% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.75% over the next 7 days2026-08-13: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.20% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: no call (score 46) — stock went +7.92% over the next 7 days2026-08-17: no call (score 59) — stock went +7.99% over the next 7 days2026-08-18: no call (score 48) — stock went +9.26% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: no call (score 53) — stock went +6.38% over the next 7 days2026-08-20: no call (score 56) — stock went +4.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-21: no call (score 45) — stock went +5.59% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: we said UP (score 60), stock went +3.47% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-25: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.94% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: no call (score 56) — stock went +8.65% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 56) — stock went +6.93% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: no call (score 47) — stock went +6.63% over the next 7 days2026-08-31: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.38% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: no call (score 46) — stock went +1.50% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went -3.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-03: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -6.09% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-04: we said UP (score 61), stock went -5.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-07: no call (score 52) — stock went -6.06% over the next 7 days2026-09-08: no call (score 47) — stock went -5.09% over the next 7 days2026-09-09: no call (score 57) — stock went -5.69% over the next 7 days2026-09-10: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.80% over the next 7 days2026-09-11: no call (score 49) — stock went -4.69% over the next 7 days2026-09-14: no call (score 51) — stock went -5.71% over the next 7 days2026-09-15: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.57% over the next 7 days2026-09-16: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.56% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.93% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: no call (score 47) — stock went -3.69% over the next 7 days2026-09-21: no call (score 45) — stock went -3.46% over the next 7 days2026-09-22: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.57% over the next 7 days2026-09-23: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.35% over the next 7 days2026-09-24: we said UP (score 60), stock went -84.37% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 27Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what CTVA actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.