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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) company logo
Industrials · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

CAT STOCK · Caterpillar Inc. BullishMulti-factor aligned

$815.39-0.09%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
61
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [14–95]Top driver: Earnings Drift
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why CAT scores 61

  • +Recent earnings surprise still drifting (Bernard-Thomas)
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • -Sector underperforming broader market

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on CAT? — 88 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 43 OF 88 DAYS — RIGHT 26 · WRONG 17
-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%2026-04-10: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.96% over the next 7 days2026-04-13: no call (score 54) — stock went +0.98% over the next 7 days2026-04-14: no call (score 54) — stock went +1.24% over the next 7 days2026-04-15: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.84% over the next 7 days2026-04-16: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.16% over the next 7 days2026-04-17: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.60% over the next 7 days2026-04-20: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.30% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-22: no call (score 43) — stock went +1.20% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +10.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +6.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-27: no call (score 49) — stock went +5.29% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 42) — stock went +9.15% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 45) — stock went +13.33% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 47) — stock went +10.57% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 42) — stock went +0.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: we said UP (score 65), stock went +4.17% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.83% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.25% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 60), stock went -0.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-08: we said UP (score 61), stock went -0.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: no call (score 54) — stock went -4.96% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 54) — stock went -7.19% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.48% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 53) — stock went -4.03% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 51) — stock went -4.38% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 63), stock went +2.28% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: no call (score 50) — stock went +5.16% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 51) — stock went +5.79% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 50) — stock went +1.73% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: we said UP (score 65), stock went +1.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: no call (score 54) — stock went -1.65% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: we said UP (score 65), stock went +3.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: we said UP (score 64), stock went +1.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said UP (score 64), stock went +3.36% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said UP (score 65), stock went +1.87% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: no call (score 55) — stock went +4.54% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.70% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.90% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: we said UP (score 63), stock went -3.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 64), stock went -3.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 64), stock went +3.28% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: no call (score 46) — stock went +3.26% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said UP (score 60), stock went +4.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 62), stock went +15.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 42) — stock went +13.89% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 70), stock went +12.27% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 61), stock went +5.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-17: we said UP (score 63), stock went +5.18% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-18: no call (score 59) — stock went +10.58% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 61), stock went +4.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: no call (score 59) — stock went +4.17% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: no call (score 59) — stock went +0.73% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 29), stock went -3.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: we said UP (score 61), stock went -8.24% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-29: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.76% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: no call (score 48) — stock went -9.01% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 57) — stock went -10.97% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -5.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 46) — stock went -1.15% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 49) — stock went -3.33% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 55) — stock went -3.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 53) — stock went -7.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -6.19% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: we said DOWN (score 27), stock went -9.25% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-14: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -4.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said UP (score 61), stock went -4.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: we said UP (score 62), stock went -2.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-17: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 54) — stock went -2.71% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -12.05% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-23: we said DOWN (score 32), stock went -9.01% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-24: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -8.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-27: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -6.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: we said UP (score 61), stock went +0.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-29: no call (score 58) — stock went +3.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 51) — stock went +9.49% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +4.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-03: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +2.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: we said UP (score 78), stock went -2.39% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: we said UP (score 64), stock went -1.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said UP (score 63), stock went +4.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 61), stock went +0.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-12: we said UP (score 61), stock went -2.56% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 10Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what CAT actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.