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Carrier Global (CARR) company logo
Industrials · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

CARR STOCK · Carrier Global NeutralSingle-factor signal

$60.15-1.72%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
46
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Sector Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.1%mean ret +2.17%n=15262Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookMiddle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why CARR scores 46

  • -Sector underperforming broader market
  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on CARR? — 81 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 4 OF 81 DAYS — RIGHT 2 · WRONG 2

Why so much grey? The score only takes a side when enough of the 13 factors agree on a direction. On CARR they have mostly pointed different ways and cancelled each other out, so the honest output was “no call” — the model doesn't manufacture an opinion to have one. Nothing is missing here: across all 1,001 stocks about a third of graded days carry a call; this stock just hasn't been one of them lately.

-10%-5%0%+5%+10%2026-04-21: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.57% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.05% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +10.75% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: no call (score 45) — stock went +9.88% over the next 7 days2026-04-27: no call (score 46) — stock went +8.07% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-28: no call (score 45) — stock went +3.67% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 49) — stock went +9.52% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 49) — stock went +8.88% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.51% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.57% over the next 7 days2026-05-05: no call (score 44) — stock went +2.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 44) — stock went +2.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 52) — stock went -1.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 57) — stock went -3.79% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 54) — stock went -2.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 54) — stock went -6.74% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 50) — stock went -2.30% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 50) — stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 45) — stock went -5.38% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 58) — stock went +0.34% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.59% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.00% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 41) — stock went +0.35% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 57) — stock went +2.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 44) — stock went +3.12% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.19% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 54) — stock went +4.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 53) — stock went +6.25% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 55) — stock went +5.25% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 52) — stock went +5.45% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 52) — stock went +9.41% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 54) — stock went +2.33% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 54) — stock went +3.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 46) — stock went +2.00% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 56) — stock went +5.91% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 48) — stock went +5.64% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 52) — stock went -2.46% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 57) — stock went +5.65% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +3.03% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: we said UP (score 66), stock went +2.77% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.53% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 56) — stock went +4.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 50) — stock went +9.37% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: no call (score 50) — stock went +2.48% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.26% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: no call (score 58) — stock went +2.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-24: no call (score 42) — stock went +1.87% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: no call (score 45) — stock went -5.39% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 47) — stock went -7.76% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 59) — stock went -4.74% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 43) — stock went -9.01% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: no call (score 49) — stock went -5.91% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -1.04% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-06: no call (score 42) — stock went -2.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 51) — stock went +2.02% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 47) — stock went +3.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 46) — stock went +1.30% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 46) — stock went -3.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.80% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 44) — stock went -2.38% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 46) — stock went +0.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.66% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 45) — stock went +0.93% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 46) — stock went -5.70% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 52) — stock went -10.15% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 54) — stock went -9.85% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 43) — stock went -10.61% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 43) — stock went -8.29% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 55) — stock went -5.25% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 46) — stock went +3.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 46) — stock went +6.74% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.64% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.71% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.97% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.18% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 48) — stock went -1.84% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 51) — stock went -2.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 45) — stock went -3.18% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 52) — stock went -3.80% over the next 7 daysApr 21Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what CARR actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.