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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) company logo
Consumer Cyclical · NYSE
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

BIRK STOCK · Birkenstock Holding plc BullishMulti-factor aligned

$33.33+1.09%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
80
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Consumer Cyclical has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [14–95]Top driver: Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 53.2%mean ret +1.65%n=5539Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why BIRK scores 80

  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Heavy short interest with downward momentum

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on BIRK? — 99 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 26 OF 99 DAYS — RIGHT 14 · WRONG 12
-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+35%+40%2026-05-11: no call (score 56) — stock went -19.20% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 56) — stock went -16.99% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.15% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 50) — stock went +19.96% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: we said UP (score 65), stock went +21.24% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said UP (score 73), stock went +39.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: we said UP (score 64), stock went +35.55% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: we said UP (score 60), stock went +31.66% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 72), stock went +32.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: no call (score 58) — stock went +13.61% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: we said UP (score 73), stock went +8.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 71), stock went +4.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: no call (score 55) — stock went -3.05% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.47% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: no call (score 53) — stock went -3.93% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: no call (score 55) — stock went -3.13% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days2026-06-03: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.24% over the next 7 days2026-06-04: no call (score 47) — stock went +9.48% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 55) — stock went +13.40% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 51) — stock went +13.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: no call (score 46) — stock went +12.16% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: no call (score 56) — stock went +3.87% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: we said UP (score 60), stock went +4.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-12: no call (score 41) — stock went -6.30% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 65), stock went -11.18% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-16: no call (score 56) — stock went -11.64% over the next 7 days2026-06-17: no call (score 50) — stock went -7.92% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: no call (score 50) — stock went -5.18% over the next 7 days2026-06-19: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -3.67% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-22: we said UP (score 66), stock went -5.86% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 65), stock went -0.62% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: we said UP (score 63), stock went +2.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: no call (score 57) — stock went +3.68% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 47) — stock went +3.92% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 54) — stock went +4.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: we said UP (score 66), stock went +2.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: no call (score 47) — stock went +2.93% over the next 7 days2026-07-03: no call (score 55) — stock went -1.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.96% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 58) — stock went -3.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.77% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 51) — stock went +0.16% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 48) — stock went -2.12% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: no call (score 58) — stock went -5.96% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: no call (score 54) — stock went -5.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: no call (score 51) — stock went -3.13% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.25% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 56) — stock went -8.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 56) — stock went -6.33% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 67), stock went -2.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 69), stock went -1.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: no call (score 55) — stock went -5.77% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.65% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.31% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 58) — stock went -8.88% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 55) — stock went -10.44% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 46) — stock went -10.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.04% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 58) — stock went -3.63% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.96% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 59) — stock went +9.39% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 50) — stock went +5.78% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: no call (score 58) — stock went -1.53% over the next 7 days2026-08-11: no call (score 53) — stock went -6.27% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 48) — stock went -3.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-13: no call (score 50) — stock went -5.96% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: no call (score 51) — stock went -13.07% over the next 7 days2026-08-17: we said UP (score 66), stock went -10.29% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: we said UP (score 64), stock went -6.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-19: we said UP (score 65), stock went -2.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-20: we said UP (score 69), stock went -2.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-21: we said UP (score 67), stock went +3.18% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-24: we said UP (score 81), stock went -2.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-25: no call (score 58) — stock went -2.97% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.25% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 52) — stock went -6.16% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: we said UP (score 79), stock went -3.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-31: no call (score 52) — stock went -8.50% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: no call (score 56) — stock went -6.56% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: no call (score 48) — stock went -7.85% over the next 7 days2026-09-03: no call (score 47) — stock went -9.17% over the next 7 days2026-09-04: no call (score 55) — stock went -8.31% over the next 7 days2026-09-07: no call (score 54) — stock went -9.82% over the next 7 days2026-09-08: no call (score 53) — stock went -11.74% over the next 7 days2026-09-09: no call (score 51) — stock went -6.68% over the next 7 days2026-09-10: no call (score 47) — stock went -1.24% over the next 7 days2026-09-11: we said UP (score 66), stock went -0.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-14: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.67% over the next 7 days2026-09-15: we said UP (score 82), stock went +2.48% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-16: no call (score 58) — stock went +4.70% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: no call (score 48) — stock went +4.43% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: no call (score 54) — stock went +7.80% over the next 7 days2026-09-21: no call (score 56) — stock went +7.89% over the next 7 days2026-09-22: no call (score 48) — stock went +5.42% over the next 7 days2026-09-23: no call (score 59) — stock went +2.30% over the next 7 days2026-09-24: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.93% over the next 7 daysMay 11Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what BIRK actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.