Is ASML a buy in 2026?

Mixed — Framler currently rates it neutral / hold based on the multi-factor Framler engine score of 48/100. Top drivers: Sector underperforming broader market; Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value); Recent earnings surprise still drifting (Bernard-Thomas). Framler combines momentum, quality, value, options flow, insider activity and HMM regime detection to score US and international equities daily. This is statistical research, not investment advice.

Is the read supported by multiple factors, or just one?

The page lists how many of the 13 factors point bullish, bearish, or neutral for ASML. Multi-factor alignment indicates stronger conviction; a single-factor signal warrants caution.

Is the uncertainty wide or narrow?

Each ticker shows a 90% Mondrian conformal range (Vovk-Shafer 2005) around the score — the band where the ticker's realised 30-day return rank, against the rest of the universe, is expected to land. It is not a price target. The width comes from the calibration bin, not from how much the factors agree.

Is the read confirmed by sector and regime?

Sector score, BOCPD regime classification (risk-on / transition / risk-off), and the active confluence pattern all appear on the page. Aligned context tightens conviction; misaligned context widens the interval and softens the verdict.

What would invalidate this read?

Factor flips week-over-week, a regime shift, fresh earnings, or insider sells are the main invalidators. Scores update daily; the 30-day score sparkline above the factor breakdown surfaces trend drift in real time.

Semiconductors · NASDAQ

Calibration 4/4:1d7d30d90d

ASML STOCK · ASML Holding NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$1,750.31-0.08%

~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.

Sector calibration · noisy

Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.

AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Sector Momentum

PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 57.1%mean ret +2.17%n=15262Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.

Middle of universe — weak directional signal this week🔒 Sign in for number

Why ASML scores 48

Sector underperforming broader market
Trading cheap to peers (Fama-French value)
Recent earnings surprise still drifting (Bernard-Thomas)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

Unlock the full ASML report

Free during early access · no credit card · 1,000+ stocks tracked daily

Were we right on ASML? — 89 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 17 OF 89 DAYS — RIGHT 14 · WRONG 3

Why so much grey? The score only takes a side when enough of the 13 factors agree on a direction. On ASML they have mostly pointed different ways and cancelled each other out, so the honest output was “no call” — the model doesn't manufacture an opinion to have one. Nothing is missing here: across all 1,001 stocks about a third of graded days carry a call; this stock just hasn't been one of them lately.