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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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Arm Holdings (ARM) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

ARM STOCK · Arm Holdings BullishMulti-factor aligned

$307.49+5.18%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
81
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [15–95]Top driver: NLP Tone
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 53.2%mean ret +1.65%n=5539Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookTop decile — strong factor setup for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why ARM scores 81

  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged
  • +Sector in favour — rotation tailwind
  • +Trading near its 52-week high (George-Hwang)

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on ARM? — 113 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 66 OF 113 DAYS — RIGHT 28 · WRONG 38
-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+35%+40%+45%+50%2026-04-21: no call (score 56) — stock went +13.45% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 47) — stock went +14.93% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said UP (score 90), stock went +7.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-24: we said UP (score 90), stock went +3.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-27: we said UP (score 75), stock went -13.44% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-28: we said UP (score 76), stock went -3.26% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-29: no call (score 44) — stock went +19.46% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: no call (score 41) — stock went +5.76% over the next 7 days2026-05-01: we said UP (score 75), stock went +1.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-04: we said UP (score 76), stock went +0.70% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: we said UP (score 81), stock went -0.44% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-06: we said UP (score 81), stock went +5.92% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-07: no call (score 56) — stock went -3.71% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: we said UP (score 81), stock went -1.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-11: we said UP (score 79), stock went +1.16% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-12: we said UP (score 79), stock went +4.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-13: no call (score 42) — stock went +17.48% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 42) — stock went +34.82% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: we said UP (score 79), stock went +34.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-18: we said UP (score 79), stock went +53.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: no call (score 56) — stock went +49.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: we said UP (score 79), stock went +35.65% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: we said UP (score 79), stock went +30.59% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-22: we said UP (score 80), stock went +18.46% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 79), stock went +33.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 68), stock went +31.39% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: we said UP (score 79), stock went +28.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 40), stock went +29.97% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-29: no call (score 42) — stock went +2.28% over the next 7 days2026-06-01: we said UP (score 80), stock went -1.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-02: we said UP (score 82), stock went -20.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-03: we said UP (score 82), stock went -23.66% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-04: we said UP (score 83), stock went -16.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: we said UP (score 82), stock went -3.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-08: we said UP (score 80), stock went +20.30% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-09: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +14.42% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-10: we said UP (score 60), stock went +28.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: no call (score 45) — stock went +42.95% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: no call (score 41) — stock went +19.14% over the next 7 days2026-06-15: we said UP (score 84), stock went +7.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-16: we said UP (score 83), stock went -11.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 68), stock went -9.40% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: we said UP (score 63), stock went -16.99% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-19: we said UP (score 70), stock went -23.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-22: we said UP (score 69), stock went -21.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-23: we said UP (score 61), stock went -13.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: we said UP (score 67), stock went -7.89% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-25: no call (score 45) — stock went -12.20% over the next 7 days2026-06-26: no call (score 46) — stock went -7.33% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: no call (score 59) — stock went -3.60% over the next 7 days2026-06-30: no call (score 46) — stock went -12.56% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 57) — stock went -15.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said UP (score 80), stock went -2.84% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +2.57% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-06: no call (score 42) — stock went -5.17% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 46) — stock went -12.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 52) — stock went -5.72% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 48) — stock went -12.73% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: no call (score 54) — stock went -18.51% over the next 7 days2026-07-13: we said UP (score 79), stock went -16.63% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 82), stock went -3.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-15: no call (score 53) — stock went +0.79% over the next 7 days2026-07-16: no call (score 50) — stock went +2.18% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.76% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 45) — stock went -0.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 84), stock went -9.22% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 80), stock went -22.38% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said UP (score 84), stock went -14.77% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: no call (score 50) — stock went -15.32% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 50) — stock went -8.06% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 52) — stock went +5.34% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 44) — stock went +12.19% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 47) — stock went +27.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 52) — stock went +25.65% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: no call (score 52) — stock went +11.75% over the next 7 days2026-08-04: no call (score 55) — stock went +12.49% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: we said UP (score 81), stock went -3.10% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.48% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: we said UP (score 82), stock went -2.53% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said UP (score 77), stock went -3.94% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: no call (score 50) — stock went -5.42% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: we said UP (score 76), stock went -7.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-13: we said UP (score 79), stock went -7.78% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-14: we said UP (score 80), stock went -12.68% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-17: we said UP (score 73), stock went -14.55% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: no call (score 54) — stock went -11.00% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.89% over the next 7 days2026-08-20: no call (score 49) — stock went +2.35% over the next 7 days2026-08-21: no call (score 57) — stock went -4.65% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: no call (score 49) — stock went -0.58% over the next 7 days2026-08-25: no call (score 51) — stock went -1.66% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: no call (score 54) — stock went -2.77% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.37% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: no call (score 56) — stock went -1.22% over the next 7 days2026-08-31: no call (score 48) — stock went +9.40% over the next 7 days2026-09-01: we said UP (score 89), stock went +8.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-02: we said UP (score 84), stock went +12.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-03: we said UP (score 89), stock went +8.23% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-04: we said UP (score 81), stock went +9.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-07: we said UP (score 83), stock went -5.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-08: we said UP (score 70), stock went -4.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-09: we said UP (score 82), stock went -6.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-10: we said UP (score 86), stock went +0.25% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-11: we said UP (score 86), stock went +8.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-14: we said UP (score 74), stock went +21.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-15: we said UP (score 72), stock went +39.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-16: no call (score 48) — stock went +37.52% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: no call (score 56) — stock went +25.56% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: we said UP (score 84), stock went +17.15% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-21: we said UP (score 80), stock went +2.80% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-22: we said UP (score 80), stock went -9.05% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-23: we said UP (score 79), stock went -13.07% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-24: we said UP (score 79), stock went -12.09% over the next 7 days — WRONGApr 21Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what ARM actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.