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Framler is a quantitative research platform - not a broker, investment advisor, or fiduciary. Nothing on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All model outputs - scores, verdicts, intervals, predictions - are for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Invest at your own risk. Built on public data - SEC EDGAR, ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, FMP.
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AppLovin Corporation (APP) company logo
Technology · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

APP STOCK · AppLovin Corporation NeutralMulti-factor aligned

$268.22-4.65%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
62
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Technology has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Sector Spillover
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why APP scores 62

  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • +High-quality fundamentals (Novy-Marx gross profitability)
  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on APP? — 112 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 71 OF 112 DAYS — RIGHT 45 · WRONG 26
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-22: no call (score 49) — stock went -6.29% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: we said UP (score 78), stock went -7.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-04-24: we said UP (score 70), stock went +1.28% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-27: we said UP (score 71), stock went +5.96% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-28: we said UP (score 71), stock went +3.87% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-29: we said UP (score 72), stock went +4.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-30: we said UP (score 71), stock went +12.50% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-01: we said UP (score 72), stock went +4.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-04: we said UP (score 72), stock went +4.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-05: no call (score 57) — stock went +2.63% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 57) — stock went -5.14% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: we said UP (score 62), stock went +3.48% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-08: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.43% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: no call (score 58) — stock went +10.03% over the next 7 days2026-05-12: no call (score 58) — stock went -0.32% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: we said UP (score 68), stock went +3.83% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-14: we said UP (score 68), stock went +7.14% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-15: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: we said UP (score 69), stock went +2.64% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-19: we said UP (score 68), stock went +4.44% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-20: we said UP (score 68), stock went +19.07% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-21: no call (score 58) — stock went +24.39% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: we said UP (score 70), stock went +26.18% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-25: we said UP (score 69), stock went +27.41% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-26: we said UP (score 71), stock went +25.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-27: no call (score 58) — stock went +11.00% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -1.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -7.12% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -8.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-02: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -15.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-03: we said DOWN (score 30), stock went -18.60% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: we said UP (score 71), stock went -16.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-05: no call (score 54) — stock went -11.11% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: we said UP (score 60), stock went -6.52% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-09: no call (score 55) — stock went -8.60% over the next 7 days2026-06-10: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -7.94% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-11: we said UP (score 72), stock went -4.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-12: we said UP (score 62), stock went -1.92% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: we said UP (score 68), stock went -5.51% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-16: we said UP (score 68), stock went -10.34% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: we said UP (score 66), stock went -9.75% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-18: we said UP (score 65), stock went -7.00% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-19: no call (score 48) — stock went +1.57% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: we said UP (score 68), stock went +6.18% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-23: we said UP (score 66), stock went +9.77% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-24: we said UP (score 64), stock went +20.90% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-25: we said UP (score 65), stock went +13.36% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-26: we said UP (score 69), stock went +21.95% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-29: we said UP (score 65), stock went +13.98% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-30: we said UP (score 69), stock went +5.86% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-01: we said UP (score 68), stock went +1.35% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-02: we said UP (score 65), stock went -7.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: we said UP (score 68), stock went -3.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-06: we said UP (score 67), stock went -15.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-07: no call (score 59) — stock went -17.43% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: we said UP (score 63), stock went -13.28% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-09: we said UP (score 66), stock went -16.80% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 66), stock went -18.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said UP (score 66), stock went -16.25% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.20% over the next 7 days2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -8.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: no call (score 43) — stock went -11.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 53) — stock went -9.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 53) — stock went -2.78% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 63), stock went -1.49% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 80), stock went -5.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said UP (score 62), stock went -2.09% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said UP (score 65), stock went -0.74% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 65), stock went +3.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went +1.69% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-29: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -0.10% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-30: no call (score 57) — stock went -15.97% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -14.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said DOWN (score 33), stock went -14.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -21.54% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-05: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -27.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-06: we said UP (score 69), stock went -25.16% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-07: we said UP (score 66), stock went -6.03% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -10.04% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: no call (score 56) — stock went -9.36% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.48% over the next 7 days2026-08-13: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.65% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went -2.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-17: no call (score 42) — stock went -5.34% over the next 7 days2026-08-18: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.46% over the next 7 days2026-08-19: no call (score 55) — stock went +0.28% over the next 7 days2026-08-20: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +0.59% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-21: no call (score 55) — stock went +2.91% over the next 7 days2026-08-24: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-25: no call (score 56) — stock went +4.40% over the next 7 days2026-08-26: no call (score 43) — stock went +2.74% over the next 7 days2026-08-27: no call (score 43) — stock went +1.78% over the next 7 days2026-08-28: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +2.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-31: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went -1.81% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-01: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.02% over the next 7 days2026-09-02: we said UP (score 60), stock went -2.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-03: no call (score 42) — stock went -1.43% over the next 7 days2026-09-04: no call (score 44) — stock went +3.31% over the next 7 days2026-09-07: no call (score 58) — stock went +4.27% over the next 7 days2026-09-08: no call (score 46) — stock went +3.40% over the next 7 days2026-09-09: no call (score 44) — stock went +4.66% over the next 7 days2026-09-10: no call (score 54) — stock went +5.42% over the next 7 days2026-09-11: no call (score 55) — stock went -2.04% over the next 7 days2026-09-14: no call (score 44) — stock went +1.92% over the next 7 days2026-09-15: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -5.68% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-16: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -4.89% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-17: no call (score 41) — stock went -4.31% over the next 7 days2026-09-18: no call (score 59) — stock went -3.37% over the next 7 days2026-09-21: we said UP (score 62), stock went +0.06% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-22: no call (score 55) — stock went -7.42% over the next 7 days2026-09-23: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -11.65% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-24: no call (score 43) — stock went -10.77% over the next 7 daysApr 22Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what APP actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.