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Astera Labs (ALAB) company logo
Semiconductors · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

ALAB STOCK · Astera Labs BullishMulti-factor aligned

$350.33-1.71%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
64
◐Sector calibration · noisy
Engine accuracy in Semiconductors has been close to zero on recent rolling windows. Treat the composite as informational. Lean on Confluence patterns, Insider clustering, and Options flow — sub-signals that retain edge in narrative-driven cohorts.
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [5–95]Top driver: Sector Momentum
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 53.2%mean ret +1.65%n=5539Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why ALAB scores 64

  • +Sector in favour — rotation tailwind
  • +Options market positioned bullishly (Pan-Poteshman)
  • -Defensive / negative MD&A language flagged

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on ALAB? — 62 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 48 OF 62 DAYS — RIGHT 17 · WRONG 31
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

+30%+35%+40%2026-07-01: we said UP (score 64), stock went -18.60% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-02: we said UP (score 63), stock went -3.11% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-03: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.61% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 46) — stock went -10.92% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 50) — stock went -16.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 57) — stock went -5.41% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: we said UP (score 63), stock went -18.67% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-10: we said UP (score 62), stock went -27.27% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-13: we said UP (score 63), stock went -25.15% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-14: we said UP (score 61), stock went -11.67% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-15: we said UP (score 62), stock went -8.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-16: no call (score 52) — stock went -6.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-17: no call (score 48) — stock went -8.81% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 48) — stock went -6.95% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: we said UP (score 63), stock went -15.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-22: we said UP (score 65), stock went -21.91% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-23: we said UP (score 67), stock went -9.43% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-24: we said UP (score 64), stock went -4.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-07-27: we said UP (score 64), stock went +10.11% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-28: no call (score 51) — stock went +28.02% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 50) — stock went +22.36% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 58) — stock went +32.74% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: we said UP (score 61), stock went +11.51% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-03: we said UP (score 61), stock went +1.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-04: we said UP (score 62), stock went -2.82% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-05: we said UP (score 61), stock went -11.85% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-06: no call (score 51) — stock went +1.37% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: we said UP (score 64), stock went -2.98% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-10: we said UP (score 62), stock went -4.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-11: no call (score 54) — stock went -4.35% over the next 7 days2026-08-12: we said UP (score 60), stock went -7.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-13: no call (score 58) — stock went -8.87% over the next 7 days2026-08-14: we said UP (score 63), stock went -11.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-17: we said UP (score 66), stock went -13.71% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-18: we said UP (score 63), stock went -11.72% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-19: we said UP (score 68), stock went -4.33% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-20: we said UP (score 64), stock went +5.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-21: we said UP (score 68), stock went -0.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-24: we said UP (score 64), stock went +4.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-25: we said UP (score 77), stock went +0.86% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-26: we said UP (score 63), stock went -3.01% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-27: we said UP (score 63), stock went -2.58% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-28: we said UP (score 64), stock went +2.08% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-31: we said UP (score 80), stock went -0.21% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-01: we said UP (score 66), stock went -2.74% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-02: we said UP (score 65), stock went +7.37% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-03: we said UP (score 70), stock went +3.79% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-04: we said UP (score 61), stock went +2.97% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-07: we said UP (score 62), stock went -17.19% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-08: we said UP (score 63), stock went -18.64% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-09: we said UP (score 63), stock went -6.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-10: we said UP (score 63), stock went -2.32% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-11: we said UP (score 66), stock went +6.58% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-14: we said UP (score 69), stock went +17.00% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-15: we said UP (score 63), stock went +41.40% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-16: no call (score 52) — stock went +42.73% over the next 7 days2026-09-17: we said UP (score 61), stock went +33.93% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-18: we said UP (score 64), stock went +24.21% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-21: we said UP (score 62), stock went +15.85% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-22: we said UP (score 65), stock went +5.02% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-09-23: we said UP (score 63), stock went -2.06% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-09-24: we said UP (score 63), stock went -1.12% over the next 7 days — WRONGJul 1Sep 24
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what ALAB actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.