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Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) company logo
Technology · NASDAQ
Calibration 4/4:●1d●7d●30d●90d

ABNB STOCK · Airbnb Inc. BullishMulti-factor aligned

$185.00-0.75%
~1-month outlook, not a day-trade. The score updates daily as the data changes — re-check weekly rather than reacting to a single day's move.
62
AgreementMODERATE ALIGNMENT

Some factor streams agree, others diverge.

90% interval: [12–95]Top driver: Accruals
PATTERN HISTORY · 14Dhit rate 55.6%mean ret +1.18%n=4719Measured across every ticker that fired this setup — not this stock's own history.
OutlookAbove-average factor outlook for this regime🔒 Sign in for number

Why ABNB scores 62

  • +Clean accruals — earnings backed by cash (Sloan)
  • +Adjacent industry leaders rallying (Cohen-Frazzini)
  • -Options skew negative — hedging flow elevated

Full report — sign in to unlock

🔒 Forward-Return Projection

Expected returns over 1 / 7 / 30 / 90 days with 90% confidence intervals, regime amplifier, pattern multiplier, copula tail-dependence — composed into one Bayesian distribution.

🔒 Full Factor Breakdown

Per-factor 0-100 scores across quality, value, momentum, PEAD, accruals, insider flow, NLP tone, options flow, short interest, sector momentum, factor interaction — plus the score waterfall.

🔒 Confluence Patterns

Active multi-factor patterns (QUALITY COMPOUNDER, VALUE TRAP, SHORT SQUEEZE, OVEREXTENDED, etc.) with academic basis and pattern delta against the raw composite.

🔒 Plain-English Explanation & Scenarios

Plain-English read of what the engine sees on this ticker today + what-if scenarios (price ±N%, regime flip, shock) replayed through the deterministic engine. No AI in the scoring path.

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How is this score built?Methodology →24 patterns →Research paper →Sector rotation →Track record →Glossary →Math coherence →

Were we right on ABNB? — 85 graded days

WE MADE A CALL ON 22 OF 85 DAYS — RIGHT 12 · WRONG 10
-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%2026-04-16: we said UP (score 60), stock went +3.17% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-04-17: no call (score 52) — stock went +3.64% over the next 7 days2026-04-20: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.35% over the next 7 days2026-04-21: no call (score 50) — stock went -3.17% over the next 7 days2026-04-22: no call (score 47) — stock went -1.66% over the next 7 days2026-04-23: no call (score 57) — stock went -2.65% over the next 7 days2026-04-24: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.15% over the next 7 days
factor
🔒 Insider Flow & News Grid

90-day net SEC Form 4 dollar flow with size normalisation, plus filtered news headlines clustered by topic.

🔒 Watchlist & Virtual Trades

Add to watchlist for daily score alerts; place a paper trade with the engine's confidence dial frozen at entry; track P&L over 30 / 90 / 180 days against the verdict horizon.

2026-04-27: no call (score 56) — stock went -2.77% over the next 7 days2026-04-28: no call (score 51) — stock went -0.94% over the next 7 days2026-04-29: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.60% over the next 7 days2026-04-30: we said UP (score 66), stock went +0.13% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-05-01: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.81% over the next 7 days2026-05-04: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.25% over the next 7 days2026-05-05: no call (score 54) — stock went -3.04% over the next 7 days2026-05-06: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.84% over the next 7 days2026-05-07: no call (score 53) — stock went -4.44% over the next 7 days2026-05-08: no call (score 53) — stock went -5.42% over the next 7 days2026-05-11: we said UP (score 69), stock went -5.54% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-05-12: no call (score 47) — stock went -4.30% over the next 7 days2026-05-13: no call (score 48) — stock went +0.58% over the next 7 days2026-05-14: no call (score 47) — stock went +0.96% over the next 7 days2026-05-15: no call (score 58) — stock went -0.99% over the next 7 days2026-05-18: no call (score 52) — stock went -0.13% over the next 7 days2026-05-19: no call (score 57) — stock went -1.21% over the next 7 days2026-05-20: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.72% over the next 7 days2026-05-21: no call (score 57) — stock went -0.77% over the next 7 days2026-05-22: no call (score 55) — stock went -0.70% over the next 7 days2026-05-25: no call (score 53) — stock went +4.17% over the next 7 days2026-05-26: no call (score 53) — stock went +1.51% over the next 7 days2026-05-27: no call (score 54) — stock went +0.69% over the next 7 days2026-05-28: no call (score 55) — stock went +1.23% over the next 7 days2026-05-29: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -0.71% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-01: no call (score 43) — stock went +0.84% over the next 7 days2026-06-02: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went -4.73% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-03: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -3.91% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-06-04: no call (score 49) — stock went -2.04% over the next 7 days2026-06-05: no call (score 50) — stock went -1.08% over the next 7 days2026-06-08: no call (score 47) — stock went +4.06% over the next 7 days2026-06-09: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +5.04% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-10: no call (score 49) — stock went +7.00% over the next 7 days2026-06-11: no call (score 43) — stock went +10.31% over the next 7 days2026-06-12: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +6.36% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-15: no call (score 41) — stock went +5.22% over the next 7 days2026-06-16: we said UP (score 64), stock went -0.08% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-17: no call (score 53) — stock went +2.27% over the next 7 days2026-06-18: we said DOWN (score 39), stock went +0.95% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-19: no call (score 58) — stock went +2.21% over the next 7 days2026-06-22: no call (score 57) — stock went +3.34% over the next 7 days2026-06-23: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went +2.81% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-24: no call (score 51) — stock went +6.09% over the next 7 days2026-06-25: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +3.14% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-26: no call (score 47) — stock went +4.07% over the next 7 days2026-06-29: we said DOWN (score 34), stock went +1.44% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-06-30: no call (score 57) — stock went +1.11% over the next 7 days2026-07-01: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.10% over the next 7 days2026-07-02: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -0.29% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-03: no call (score 42) — stock went -0.21% over the next 7 days2026-07-06: no call (score 43) — stock went -1.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-07: no call (score 50) — stock went -0.75% over the next 7 days2026-07-08: no call (score 53) — stock went -0.23% over the next 7 days2026-07-09: no call (score 47) — stock went +3.39% over the next 7 days2026-07-10: we said DOWN (score 35), stock went -0.62% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-13: no call (score 43) — stock went -2.48% over the next 7 days2026-07-14: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -1.52% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-15: we said DOWN (score 37), stock went -4.43% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-16: we said DOWN (score 38), stock went -7.29% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-07-17: no call (score 52) — stock went -4.53% over the next 7 days2026-07-20: no call (score 50) — stock went +0.60% over the next 7 days2026-07-21: no call (score 53) — stock went +5.64% over the next 7 days2026-07-22: no call (score 52) — stock went +6.18% over the next 7 days2026-07-23: no call (score 50) — stock went +8.59% over the next 7 days2026-07-24: no call (score 50) — stock went +10.14% over the next 7 days2026-07-27: no call (score 42) — stock went +6.76% over the next 7 days2026-07-28: no call (score 44) — stock went +2.08% over the next 7 days2026-07-29: no call (score 42) — stock went -0.40% over the next 7 days2026-07-30: no call (score 54) — stock went -0.90% over the next 7 days2026-07-31: no call (score 53) — stock went +17.09% over the next 7 days2026-08-03: we said DOWN (score 36), stock went +21.90% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-04: no call (score 56) — stock went +22.80% over the next 7 days2026-08-05: no call (score 58) — stock went +20.13% over the next 7 days2026-08-06: no call (score 56) — stock went +21.40% over the next 7 days2026-08-07: no call (score 44) — stock went +21.38% over the next 7 days2026-08-10: we said UP (score 65), stock went +0.69% over the next 7 days — RIGHT2026-08-11: we said UP (score 63), stock went -0.79% over the next 7 days — WRONG2026-08-12: we said UP (score 64), stock went +0.76% over the next 7 days — RIGHTApr 16Aug 12
we made a call and were rightwe made a call and were wrongno call that day

Each bar is what ABNB actually did over the 7 days after one of our published scores — up bars, the stock rose; down bars, it fell. A “call” is a day the score left the middle zone (above 60 = we said up, below 40 = we said down), and it's counted right only if the stock then moved our way. Faint bars are days we made no call — saying “we don't know” is allowed here. These are raw counts on one stock, far too few to prove skill either way — the serious, pre-registered test across all 1,001 stocks is the public bet.