Earnings-validated breakout

Bullish

Strong earnings surprise + price confirmed by breaking out + quality is solid. The move has real earnings behind it.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Bernard-Thomas 1989

Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005

TYPICAL HORIZON

30-90 days

FACTORS USED

peadmomentumquality

What it means

The company beat expectations by a meaningful margin (not just a penny), the market is rewarding the beat with a sustained price move (not a one-day spike that fades), and the underlying business quality hasn't deteriorated. Three independent confirmations aligned.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 showed that post-earnings drift persists for ~60 days — the market under-reacts to large surprises initially and slowly adjusts. When the drift is also accompanied by persistent momentum and quality support, the drift tends to run further.

Watch out

Macro regime changes can derail the drift. A risk-off rotation hurts even high-quality earnings winners. The pattern is most reliable in risk-on or transition regimes.

Live matches

50 tickers firing right now

TickerCompanySectorChangeScore

FITBFifth Third BancorpFinancial Services+1.25%82[36–95]PSXPhillips 66Energy+2.78%81[35–95]QRVOQorvo Inc.Semiconductors+2.12%74[28–95]INGING Groep N.V.Financials+0.37%72[26–95]GWWW.W. GraingerIndustrials-0.58%72[26–95]RPMRPM InternationalBasic Materials+1.95%72[26–95]KHCKraft HeinzConsumer+1.88%72[26–95]TTETotalEnergies SEEnergy+1.25%71[25–95]VZVerizon CommunicationsCommunication+0.84%71[25–95]GEGE AerospaceIndustrials+1.58%71[25–95]INVHInvitation HomesReal Estate+2.94%71[25–95]CVXChevron CorporationEnergy+2.63%71[25–95]XOMExxon Mobil CorporationEnergy+1.63%71[25–95]CPAYCorpay Inc.Technology+6.18%71[25–95]TTEKTetra TechIndustrials+4.16%71[25–95]TXNTexas InstrumentsSemiconductors-0.70%71[25–95]AEEAmeren CorporationUtilities+0.96%71[25–95]PANWPalo Alto NetworksTechnology+1.94%70[24–95]BKRBaker HughesEnergy+3.25%70[24–95]WTSWatts Water TechnologiesIndustrials+1.73%69[23–95]EXPDExpeditors InternationalIndustrials+0.85%69[23–95]JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesTechnology+1.64%68[22–95]ADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandConsumer Defensive+0.63%67[21–95]ISRGIntuitive SurgicalHealthcare+4.46%67[21–95]MDLZMondelez InternationalConsumer+1.99%66[20–95]CFGCitizens Financial GroupFinancial Services+0.49%66[20–95]KOCoca-Cola CompanyConsumer+0.47%66[20–95]STTState Street CorpFinancial Services+0.58%66[20–95]DDOGDatadog Inc.Technology+0.40%66[20–95]XYZBlock Inc.Financials+0.38%66[20–95]MMM3M CompanyIndustrials+4.32%65[19–95]MPCMarathon PetroleumEnergy+1.76%65[19–95]JPMJPMorgan ChaseFinancials+0.98%65[19–95]BENFranklin ResourcesFinancial Services+0.44%65[19–95]OXYOccidental PetroleumEnergy+0.13%64[18–95]KIMKimco RealtyReal Estate+2.04%64[18–95]JJacobs SolutionsIndustrials+2.81%64[18–95]RBLXRoblox CorporationTechnology+9.64%64[18–95]ODFLOld Dominion FreightIndustrials+0.50%64[18–95]ALLAllstate CorpFinancial Services+1.77%64[18–95]RTXRTX CorporationIndustrials+2.79%64[18–95]TWLOTwilio Inc.Technology-0.31%63[17–95]PLTRPalantir TechnologiesTechnology+0.86%63[17–95]CVSCVS Health CorporationHealthcare+0.10%63[17–95]AXPAmerican ExpressFinancials-0.40%63[17–95]CSXCSX CorporationIndustrials+1.18%63[17–95]MANHManhattan AssociatesTechnology+4.10%63[17–95]EOGEOG ResourcesEnergy+1.95%62[16–95]LHXL3Harris TechnologiesIndustrials+2.56%62[16–95]MNSTMonster BeverageConsumer+1.66%62[16–95]

Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.