Earnings-validated breakout

Bullish

Strong earnings surprise + price confirmed by breaking out + quality is solid. The move has real earnings behind it.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Bernard-Thomas 1989

Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005

TYPICAL HORIZON

30-90 days

FACTORS USED

peadmomentumquality

What it means

The company beat expectations by a meaningful margin (not just a penny), the market is rewarding the beat with a sustained price move (not a one-day spike that fades), and the underlying business quality hasn't deteriorated. Three independent confirmations aligned.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 showed that post-earnings drift persists for ~60 days — the market under-reacts to large surprises initially and slowly adjusts. When the drift is also accompanied by persistent momentum and quality support, the drift tends to run further.

Watch out

Macro regime changes can derail the drift. A risk-off rotation hurts even high-quality earnings winners. The pattern is most reliable in risk-on or transition regimes.

Live matches

40 tickers firing right now

TickerCompanySectorChangeScore

KHCKraft HeinzConsumer+1.44%67[21–95]JPMJPMorgan ChaseFinancials+0.12%66[20–95]PINSPinterest Inc.Communication+0.82%65[19–95]PLTRPalantir TechnologiesTechnology+2.84%64[18–95]FICOFair Isaac CorporationTechnology+5.32%64[18–95]WRBW.R. BerkleyFinancial Services+2.01%63[17–95]KOCoca-Cola CompanyConsumer+3.51%63[17–95]FNVFranco-NevadaBasic Materials+4.36%63[17–95]FITBFifth Third BancorpFinancial Services-0.57%63[17–95]NEMNewmont CorporationMaterials+4.01%63[17–95]AMPAmeriprise FinancialFinancial Services+1.98%63[17–95]TAPMolson Coors BeverageConsumer+1.90%63[17–95]GWWW.W. GraingerIndustrials+0.35%62[16–95]BACBank of AmericaFinancials+0.63%62[16–95]VVisa Inc.Financials+3.15%62[16–95]DDDuPont de NemoursMaterials+1.04%62[16–95]KMIKinder MorganEnergy+1.07%62[16–95]INVHInvitation HomesReal Estate+0.59%62[16–95]KEYKeyCorpFinancial Services-0.99%61[15–95]MDLZMondelez InternationalConsumer+2.63%61[15–95]AXPAmerican ExpressFinancials+1.41%61[15–95]UDRUDR Inc.Real Estate+1.16%61[15–95]XYZBlock Inc.Financials+2.20%61[15–95]STTState Street CorpFinancial Services+0.60%61[15–95]CVXChevron CorporationEnergy+2.12%60[14–95]RBLXRoblox CorporationTechnology-4.38%60[14–95]MKCMcCormick & CompanyConsumer Defensive+1.02%60[14–95]TFCTruist FinancialFinancial Services+0.18%60[14–95]XPOXPO Inc.Industrials-0.35%59[13–95]MPCMarathon PetroleumEnergy+0.56%58[12–95]BENFranklin ResourcesFinancial Services+0.15%58[12–95]ZBHZimmer BiometHealthcare+3.92%58[12–95]PSXPhillips 66Energy+1.10%58[12–95]TXTTextron Inc.Industrials+0.62%58[12–95]NEENextEra EnergyEnergy+2.28%58[12–95]CVSCVS Health CorporationHealthcare-0.09%57[11–95]RHIRobert HalfIndustrials+1.55%57[11–95]RTXRTX CorporationIndustrials+3.90%56[10–95]ISRGIntuitive SurgicalHealthcare+5.87%56[10–95]JJacobs SolutionsIndustrials+2.62%56[10–95]

Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.