Earnings-validated breakout

Bullish

Strong earnings surprise + price confirmed by breaking out + quality is solid. The move has real earnings behind it.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Bernard-Thomas 1989

Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005

TYPICAL HORIZON

30-90 days

FACTORS USED

peadmomentumquality

What it means

The company beat expectations by a meaningful margin (not just a penny), the market is rewarding the beat with a sustained price move (not a one-day spike that fades), and the underlying business quality hasn't deteriorated. Three independent confirmations aligned.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 showed that post-earnings drift persists for ~60 days — the market under-reacts to large surprises initially and slowly adjusts. When the drift is also accompanied by persistent momentum and quality support, the drift tends to run further.

Watch out

Macro regime changes can derail the drift. A risk-off rotation hurts even high-quality earnings winners. The pattern is most reliable in risk-on or transition regimes.

Live matches

50 tickers firing right now

TickerCompanySectorChangeScore

LLYEli Lilly and CompanyHealthcare-2.81%85[35–95]BIIBBiogen Inc.Healthcare-3.25%82[32–95]QRVOQorvo Inc.Semiconductors-0.52%81[31–95]MBLYMobileye GlobalSemiconductors-2.42%78[28–95]SLBSLB (Schlumberger)Energy+0.00%77[27–95]MMM3M CompanyIndustrials-1.42%76[26–95]TSMTaiwan SemiconductorSemiconductors+0.95%75[25–95]BMYBristol-Myers SquibbHealthcare-3.17%73[23–95]KKRKKR & Co.Financial Services-3.11%73[23–95]STZConstellation Brands, Inc.Consumer+0.46%73[23–95]RKLBRocket Lab USAIndustrials-3.81%73[23–95]GILDGilead SciencesHealthcare-2.82%72[22–95]JPMJPMorgan ChaseFinancial Services-1.60%72[22–95]TOSTToast Inc.Technology+0.46%72[22–95]MCOMoody's CorporationFinancial Services+0.35%72[22–95]NOCNorthrop GrummanIndustrials-3.26%72[22–95]SWKStanley Black & DeckerIndustrials-0.95%71[21–95]RTXRTX CorporationIndustrials-3.66%71[21–95]CDWCDW CorporationTechnology-2.67%71[21–95]MRKMerck & Co.Healthcare-2.11%70[20–95]TGTTarget CorporationConsumer-0.47%70[20–95]CSLCarlisle CompaniesIndustrials-2.21%70[20–95]AMTAmerican TowerReal Estate+0.70%69[19–95]VLOValero EnergyEnergy-1.37%69[19–95]RIVNRivian AutomotiveConsumer Cyclical+1.78%69[19–95]PYPLPayPal HoldingsFinancial Services+1.71%69[19–95]TRGPTarga ResourcesEnergy+1.74%68[18–95]DISWalt Disney CompanyCommunication Services+0.36%68[18–95]STESTERIS plcHealthcare-0.49%68[18–95]PCVXVaxcyte Inc.Healthcare-3.10%67[17–95]XYZBlock Inc.Financial Services-1.05%67[17–95]CRMSalesforce Inc.Technology-0.32%67[17–95]MUMicron TechnologySemiconductors+3.97%67[17–95]BILLBill HoldingsTechnology-0.65%66[16–95]THCTenet HealthcareHealthcare+1.52%65[15–95]NKENike Inc.Consumer-2.05%65[15–95]KDPKeurig Dr PepperConsumer Defensive+1.93%65[15–95]ADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandConsumer Defensive+1.16%65[15–95]MSFTMicrosoft CorporationTechnology-0.47%65[15–95]CEGConstellation EnergyEnergy-0.46%65[15–95]DVNDevon EnergyEnergy+2.30%64[14–95]GGGGraco Inc.Industrials-1.19%64[14–95]GWWW.W. GraingerIndustrials-0.51%64[14–95]MKCMcCormick & CompanyConsumer Defensive-2.23%64[14–95]BXBlackstone Inc.Financial Services-2.58%64[14–95]SJMJ.M. SmuckerConsumer Defensive+0.17%63[13–95]PODDInsulet CorporationHealthcare-3.06%63[13–95]COPConocoPhillipsEnergy+3.30%63[13–95]RBLXRoblox CorporationTechnology-0.16%63[13–95]ABEVAmbev S.A. (ADR)Consumer Defensive+0.71%63[13–95]

Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.