Earnings-validated breakout

Bullish

Strong earnings surprise + price confirmed by breaking out + quality is solid. The move has real earnings behind it.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Bernard-Thomas 1989

Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005

TYPICAL HORIZON

30-90 days

FACTORS USED

peadmomentumquality

What it means

The company beat expectations by a meaningful margin (not just a penny), the market is rewarding the beat with a sustained price move (not a one-day spike that fades), and the underlying business quality hasn't deteriorated. Three independent confirmations aligned.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 showed that post-earnings drift persists for ~60 days — the market under-reacts to large surprises initially and slowly adjusts. When the drift is also accompanied by persistent momentum and quality support, the drift tends to run further.

Watch out

Macro regime changes can derail the drift. A risk-off rotation hurts even high-quality earnings winners. The pattern is most reliable in risk-on or transition regimes.

Live matches

31 tickers firing right now

TickerCompanySectorChangeScore

TRVTravelers CompaniesFinancial Services-0.35%77[11–95]MSFTMicrosoft CorporationTechnology+0.92%75[22–95]MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsSemiconductors+5.79%64[5–95]GLBEGlobal-e OnlineTechnology-2.24%64[5–95]ODFLOld Dominion FreightIndustrials+1.34%63[5–95]PHParker-HannifinIndustrials+0.69%63[5–95]WTSWatts Water TechnologiesIndustrials+1.00%63[5–95]UNPUnion PacificIndustrials+2.15%62[5–95]AVNTAvient CorporationBasic Materials+1.55%62[5–95]KEYKeyCorpFinancial Services+0.15%62[5–95]SWKStanley Black & DeckerIndustrials+1.95%62[5–95]WRBW.R. BerkleyFinancial Services+0.12%62[5–95]RRXRegal RexnordIndustrials+2.11%61[5–95]FFIVF5 Inc.Technology+2.34%61[5–95]ADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandConsumer Defensive+1.17%61[5–95]STTState Street CorpFinancial Services+0.77%60[5–95]LHXL3Harris TechnologiesIndustrials-0.76%60[5–95]MLMMartin Marietta MaterialsBasic Materials+0.65%60[5–95]BOOTBoot Barn HoldingsConsumer Cyclical+0.74%60[5–95]LECOLincoln ElectricIndustrials+1.85%59[5–95]RLRalph LaurenConsumer Cyclical+0.20%59[5–95]RIVNRivian AutomotiveConsumer Cyclical-3.12%59[5–95]CLHClean HarborsIndustrials+1.92%59[5–95]CLSCelestica Inc.Technology+3.81%58[5–95]CRSPCRISPR TherapeuticsHealthcare-0.02%58[5–95]OKEONEOK Inc.Energy+0.83%58[5–95]TRGPTarga ResourcesEnergy+0.87%58[5–95]BKRBaker HughesEnergy+0.68%57[5–95]KDPKeurig Dr PepperConsumer Defensive-1.04%56[5–95]CEGConstellation EnergyEnergy-0.55%56[5–95]DDominion EnergyUtilities+0.91%56[5–95]

Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.