Engine internals

Market regime (BOCPD)

In plain English

A market regime is a probabilistic label for the current mood of the overall market: risk-on (broad bullish flow), risk-off (broad bearish flow), or transition (uncertain). Framler uses Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection on SPY log-returns to maintain a live posterior over the three regimes, updated daily.

How it works

Adams-MacKay 2007 Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection — we maintain a posterior distribution over which regime the market is currently in, updated daily on SPY log-returns. Each factor has different efficacy in each regime (e.g. momentum works great in risk-on, gets crushed in risk-off). The regime modulates how we weight factors and how we amplify the alpha contribution.

Where you see this in Framler
Regime pill (RISK-ON / TRANSITION / RISK-OFF) on every ticker page. Regime stripe at top of /dashboard layout.
Primary citation
Adams-MacKay 2007, Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection

Related — Engine internals

Framler score (composite)Verdict (BUY/MIXED/SELL)Forward return (expected)Conformal prediction intervalTail-dependence (copula)Kalman DLM (dynamic factor weights)

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Market regime (BOCPD) — Framler glossary | Framler