Engine internals

Forward return (expected)

In plain English

A forward return is the model's best estimate of how much a stock will return over the next 1, 7, 30, or 90 days, expressed as a mean plus a 90% confidence band. The engine composes the estimate from a market-drift baseline and the per-ticker alpha implied by the composite score, then adjusts for the current regime, any matching academic pattern, and tail-dependence shrinkage. Wider bands signal lower confidence, not lower expected return.

How it works

Computed by the engine v10 Forward-Return Engine. The mean projection combines a market-drift baseline (small, slowly drifting) with the alpha implied by the score, then is shaped by the current market regime and any matching confluence pattern. We show 4 horizons (1d, 7d, 30d, 90d) with mean, 90% CI, and P(positive return). Prior-mode until 2026-05-16 — read it as "engine's theoretical projection from published factor literature", not "guaranteed outcome". The exact composition formula and its calibrated coefficients are proprietary.

Where you see this in Framler
Forward Return Projection panel on /stocks/[ticker], below the score breakdown.

Related — Engine internals

Framler score (composite)Verdict (BUY/MIXED/SELL)Market regime (BOCPD)Conformal prediction intervalTail-dependence (copula)Kalman DLM (dynamic factor weights)

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Forward return (expected) — Framler glossary | Framler