Post-earnings drift continuation

Bullish

Earnings beat + price still rising afterward + sector also supportive + options flow bullish. Classic PEAD.

PRIMARY SOURCE

Bernard-Thomas 1989

Ball-Brown 1968

Pan-Poteshman 2006

TYPICAL HORIZON

30-60 days

FACTORS USED

peadmomentumspilloveroptions

What it means

The company beat earnings expectations, the market responded with a sustained (not one-day) positive price reaction, the sector isn't dragging the ticker, and derivatives markets are also positioning bullishly. All four data sources confirm the same story.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 post-earnings drift is one of the most replicable anomalies in finance — the top decile of earnings surprises earns ~8% excess return over the following 60 days. Pan-Poteshman 2006 options flow adds a cross-asset confirmation signal.

Watch out

The drift weakens for companies that beat but guide lower for the next quarter. Also, accelerated drift reversal happens if short interest builds rapidly post-beat (indicates smart money betting against the move).

Live matches

24 tickers firing right now

TickerCompanySectorChangeScore

MBLYMobileye GlobalSemiconductors-1.03%73[27–95]TENBTenable HoldingsTechnology+1.85%72[26–95]IARTIntegra LifeSciencesHealthcare+0.89%70[24–95]CBOECboe Global MarketsFinancial Services+0.51%65[19–95]KDPKeurig Dr PepperConsumer Defensive-0.21%64[18–95]EXPEExpedia GroupConsumer Cyclical+1.57%64[18–95]CPAYCorpay Inc.Technology+3.38%63[17–95]VLOValero EnergyEnergy-0.62%62[16–95]EXELExelixis Inc.Healthcare+3.50%62[16–95]MORNMorningstar Inc.Financial Services+2.45%61[15–95]EXPDExpeditors InternationalIndustrials+0.46%60[14–95]BILLBill HoldingsTechnology+4.38%60[14–95]SBUXStarbucks CorporationConsumer+0.85%60[14–95]MRKMerck & Co.Healthcare+3.34%59[13–95]TTEKTetra TechIndustrials+2.47%59[13–95]ALIZFAllianz SEFinancials+3.00%59[13–95]GEGE AerospaceIndustrials+0.69%59[13–95]ALLYAlly FinancialFinancial Services-1.65%59[13–95]JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesTechnology+3.12%58[12–95]ADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandConsumer Defensive+0.23%58[12–95]BGBunge GlobalConsumer Defensive+1.50%58[12–95]CHRDChord EnergyEnergy+1.51%57[11–95]CWSTCasella Waste SystemsIndustrials+2.23%55[9–95]CSGPCoStar GroupReal Estate+2.18%55[9–95]

Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.