Contrarian bottom

Bullish

Cheap after selloff + accounting looks clean + price action just stopped falling. Overreaction fading.

PRIMARY SOURCE
De Bondt-Thaler 1985
Lakonishok-Shleifer-Vishny 1994
TYPICAL HORIZON
6-12 months
FACTORS USED
valueaccrualsmomentum

What it means

The stock has been beaten down (that's why valuation is low), but the accounting quality is still OK — meaning the fundamental business isn't actually broken. Price action is starting to stabilise. Classic overreaction mean-reversion setup.

Why it works

De Bondt-Thaler 1985 documented that the worst-performing stocks in one period systematically outperform in the next, driven by sentiment overshoot. LSV 1994 showed the effect is strongest when the "cheap" stocks also pass a quality screen.

Watch out

Timing matters. Catching a falling knife before momentum stabilises is the most common failure. The pattern is disabled in pure bear regimes (risk_off) because the base rate of further declines is too high.

Live matches

11 tickers firing right now
TickerCompanySectorChangeScore
TSMTaiwan SemiconductorSemiconductors-2.27%69[2395]KEYSKeysight TechnologiesTechnology-6.48%68[2295]ADIAnalog DevicesSemiconductors-3.04%68[2295]BSBRBanco Santander Brasil (ADR)Financial Services+0.00%64[1895]KER.PAKering S.A.Consumer Cyclical-1.64%58[1295]CTRACoterra EnergyEnergy-8.62%58[1295]GNRCGenerac HoldingsIndustrials-6.50%57[1195]9843.TNitori HoldingsConsumer Cyclical-0.59%57[1195]TERTeradyne Inc.Semiconductors-13.63%57[1195]ASMLASML HoldingSemiconductors-4.00%56[1095]RRXRegal RexnordIndustrials-4.76%54[895]
Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.
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