Contrarian bottom

Bullish

Cheap after selloff + accounting looks clean + price action just stopped falling. Overreaction fading.

PRIMARY SOURCE
De Bondt-Thaler 1985
Lakonishok-Shleifer-Vishny 1994
TYPICAL HORIZON
6-12 months
FACTORS USED
valueaccrualsmomentum

What it means

The stock has been beaten down (that's why valuation is low), but the accounting quality is still OK — meaning the fundamental business isn't actually broken. Price action is starting to stabilise. Classic overreaction mean-reversion setup.

Why it works

De Bondt-Thaler 1985 documented that the worst-performing stocks in one period systematically outperform in the next, driven by sentiment overshoot. LSV 1994 showed the effect is strongest when the "cheap" stocks also pass a quality screen.

Watch out

Timing matters. Catching a falling knife before momentum stabilises is the most common failure. The pattern is disabled in pure bear regimes (risk_off) because the base rate of further declines is too high.

Live matches

13 tickers firing right now
TickerCompanySectorChangeScore
BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcConsumer Cyclical-4.37%69[1995]BNPQYBNP Paribas SAFinancial Services-1.03%69[1995]CFGCitizens Financial GroupFinancial Services-1.48%68[1895]RBCRBC BearingsIndustrials-3.06%67[1795]RDDTReddit Inc.Communication Services-0.92%66[1695]STXSeagate TechnologyTechnology+2.12%66[1695]KEYKeyCorpFinancial Services-1.13%65[1595]105560.KSKB Financial GroupFinancial Services-3.85%63[1395]BMO.TOBank of MontrealFinancial Services-1.57%63[1395]055550.KSShinhan FinancialFinancial Services-3.71%60[1095]INGA.ASING GroepFinancial Services-0.44%60[1095]UPM.HEUPM-KymmeneBasic Materials+2.03%56[695]TERTeradyne Inc.Semiconductors+0.92%56[695]
Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.
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