Priced for perfection

Bearish

Extended price + expensive + nobody is short + options flow bearish. No margin of safety if anything goes wrong.

PRIMARY SOURCE
Asquith-Pathak-Ritter 2005
Shiller 2000
Pan-Poteshman 2006
TYPICAL HORIZON
1-6 months
FACTORS USED
short_interestmomentumvalueoptions

What it means

Stock is up a lot, valuation is stretched, short interest is near zero (no bearish hedge from sophisticated money), and the options market is pricing in downside. Nothing supports the price if a negative surprise hits — asymmetric downside.

Why it works

The absence of shorts removes the mechanical buyer of last resort. Shiller-style extended valuations combined with complacent positioning historically precede drawdowns. Pan-Poteshman options flow adds a contemporary-alpha confirmation.

Watch out

The pattern is about asymmetry, not directional conviction. The stock can keep rising for months; but when it turns, the drawdown is typically faster than for stocks with a short base. Think of it as a risk warning rather than a short signal.

Live matches

10 tickers firing right now
TickerCompanySectorChangeScore
CLColgate-PalmoliveConsumer+2.55%49[595]MRSHMarsh & McLennanFinancial Services+3.72%46[592]METMetLife Inc.Financial Services+3.28%46[592]LNGCheniere EnergyEnergy+0.84%46[592]LMTLockheed MartinIndustrials+4.62%44[590]TJXTJX CompaniesConsumer+1.92%39[585]BPBP p.l.c.Energy+3.46%38[584]CSXCSX CorporationIndustrials+1.16%38[584]AMGNAmgen Inc.Healthcare+3.55%38[584]BABoeing CompanyIndustrials+3.62%37[583]
Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.
More from Framler
Pattern libraryHow patterns compose with FramlerFramler framework paperPer-pattern hit rate (post-16-May)Sector rotation overviewMath invariants live