A pharma ticker's most urgent Phase 3 trial has a Bayesian failure probability well above the base rate.
A biotech or pharma company with a single-asset pipeline where the next Phase 3 readout will dominate price action for the coming year. Our Bayesian engine combined the base failure rate (~42% for Phase 3) with signals like enrollment velocity, endpoint amendments, mechanism of action risk, and cash burn, and arrived at a failure probability materially above the prior.
Hay 2014 industry data show ~58% of Phase 3 trials fail. The LLR-based combination of live signals lets us update that base rate with current trial-specific evidence — enrollment anomalies, endpoint amendments mid-trial, historically high failure-rate mechanisms of action. The resulting posterior is directly tradeable because Phase 3 readouts cause ±30-50% price moves and dominate the ticker's next 6-12 months.
Binary event. If the trial actually succeeds, the bearish thesis reverses completely and the ticker typically gaps up 30-80% on readout day. This pattern is about probability-weighted expected return, not directional certainty. Position-size accordingly.