Deep momentum breakdown

Bearish

Bottom-decile momentum with no quality, value, or sector offset. Not a contrarian setup — breakdown continuation.

PRIMARY SOURCE
Jegadeesh-Titman 1993
Brock-Lakonishok-LeBaron 1992
TYPICAL HORIZON
3-6 months
FACTORS USED
momentumqualityspilloveraccruals

What it means

Momentum has collapsed into the bottom decile of the universe, quality is below mid (so it's not a high-quality drawdown that contrarians would buy), the sector is confirming the move, and accruals aren't cushioning. The contrarian-bottom and deep-value patterns explicitly screen this case OUT via their quality/accruals gates — this pattern catches the rejected residual.

Why it works

Jegadeesh-Titman 1993 (Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers) is one of the strongest published anomalies: the bottom decile of 6-12 month momentum continues underperforming over the following 3-6 months in the absence of value or quality offsets. Brock-Lakonishok-LeBaron 1992 confirmed the technical-breakdown signal on traditional moving-average crossovers.

Watch out

Mean reversion does eventually catch up — the bottom-decile momentum cohort tends to flip bullish over 24-36 month horizons (De Bondt-Thaler reversal). The pattern is a tactical bearish signal, not a multi-year position. Watch for a regime flip to risk-on or a quality stabilisation as exit signal.

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Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.
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