Post-earnings drift — missed beat

Bearish

Earnings missed expectations + price reacting down + options flow bearish. The drift after a miss runs as long as the drift after a beat.

PRIMARY SOURCE
Bartov-Givoly-Hayn 2002
Bernard-Thomas 1989
Pan-Poteshman 2006
TYPICAL HORIZON
30-90 days
FACTORS USED
peadmomentumoptions

What it means

The mirror of the post-earnings drift on the negative side. The company missed expectations, the market is selling the miss across multiple sessions, and the derivatives market is positioning bearishly. Three independent channels confirming the same negative story.

Why it works

Bernard-Thomas 1989 documented that post-earnings drift is symmetric — the bottom decile of earnings surprises underperforms by ~7% over 60 days. Bartov-Givoly-Hayn 2002 confirmed the effect persists across regimes. The slow-reaction premise is the same as the bullish PEAD: markets under-react to large surprises initially and reprice over weeks.

Watch out

Misses driven by one-time non-cash charges (impairments, restructuring) sometimes reverse fast when the next quarter shows operations are fine. Check the 8-K language to separate "operations broken" misses from "accounting noise" misses.

Live matches

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Disclaimer. Pattern matches are research signals, not investment advice. Past performance of an academic effect does not guarantee future returns. Forward-return tracking for Framler's own implementation begins 2026-05-16 after the calibration window closes.
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